Replies to post #82117 on Regen BioPharma Inc (RGBP)

[Tonneke]

so if I understand you correctly then the buyout would be about 1.25, when I read your piece at the first lines a company was bought out for 12 billion and with fewer patents, how do you rhyme this

[SeniorGolfer]

Thank You Sir for all the great DD

[Bridget21]

Thanks OTCShotCaller..really interesting/informative post.

[Max2121]

Thank you for taking time and putting your thoughts into analysis backed with great DD’s to enlighten us.

[Carter]

Great write-up OTC, thanks for putting that together! To your top 5 list I would add another (perhaps a top 10):

CureVac
Market Cap $12.44B
PPS $66.82; "CVAC" on NASDAQ

CureVac is a clinical stage biotech developing mRNA based medicines (including oncology) that has collaborated with J&J, GSK, Sanofi, BI, and the Cancer Research Institute.

[bay8605]

BioNTech and InstaDeep Announce Strategic Collaboration and Form AI Innovation Lab to Develop Novel Immunotherapies

... One of the key research areas of the BioNTech-InstaDeep joint Innovation Lab will be the development of next generation vaccines and biopharmaceuticals for the treatment of cancer and prevention and therapy of infectious diseases, including Covid-19.

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-and-instadeep-announce-strategic-collaboration-and-form

[Trish0949]

Thank you OTCSC for the great article.

[winner06]

How can one forecast the buy out price based on the fact that we have 3.75B shares outstanding and with all the patents? Is there an industry standard formula to estimate? What will be a fair value?

If a company was to buy out normally is it that share holders are paid cash for the current shares? Or do some take overs simply dissolve current shares and allocate new shares of the company doing the buy out based on the buy out price?

Example will RGBP shares become null and void say if Moderna bought us out and allocate us Moderna shares?

Cheers!

[BDEZ]

Thanks OTC...which one in your opinion is the best fit? tia

RGBP

[the cabinet guy]

OTCShotCaller. Thank you for all of your very informative posts. Thank all of you guys for all of the information you provide. I don't post much as I don't have a lot to offer. I just read a lot and follow and learn more everyday. The last part of this post confused me a little and I'm asking if I am missing something. You point out that Kite had 1 mrna patent and treatment in it's pipeline and sold for 12 billion. Regen has so much more going for it that's it's hard to compare the two. You have your projected buy out price for Regen at $1.25 per share which would be less than 5 billion total. Am I missing something? I know this is all speculation but isn't that kind of low?

[tsand]

Great DD and logic. Thanks for sharing. Many considerations in the near-term regarding investment strategies...

[crazy horse 0]

Nice Post OTC

Top 5 Big Pharma "Pick List" That Might Acquire RGBP


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165563015

[A51Rob]

This stock is going to make new Millionaires $,$$$,$$$.$$

[gotinearly]

Very well written. Thank you

[Jrossco]

Amazing observation and thank you for taking the time to put this all together. Big things should come IMO.

[mikeo56]

Absolutely awesome post. Must read and ponder here.

[joe botts]

Thanks. Mama Mia

[jaiguruji7]

Great post otcshotcaller, RGEN BUYOUT SOON, $5+ MARK MY WORDS!! WE HAVE THE CANCER VACCINE PATENT ALL PHARMAS IN THE CANCER SPACE NEED OUR LICENSING OR ARE GOING TO GIVE A HUGE PRICE TO BID FOR US. WE WILL START SEEING A BIG BIDDING WAR BY MULTIPLE LARGE PHARMAS FOR RGEN SOON!!. GET READY!!

JMHO

[OTCShotCaller]

Top 5 Big Pharmas That Might Acquire RGBP (update)

I will begin this discussion with the direct quote from RGBP's CEO Dr. Koos 8-K filing on 4/27/21 where he specifically states on Page 2 the following:

Quote

"To the extent that the Non-Convertible Series NC Preferred Stock may have Anti-Takeover Effects, Regen believes that the ability of Regen to issue shares with such voting power will encourage persons seeking to ACQUIRE Regen to negotiate directly with the Board of Directors enabling the Board of Directors to consider the proposed transaction in a manner that best serves the stockholders’ interests."

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/conv_pdf?id=14894907&guid=yVn1ke4vP1Wve8h

The language Koos is using here is in reference to himself who due to the issuing of Preferred Stock arrangements that give him sole Voting Power and therefore exclusive control over RGBP as the head of the Board of Directors. What this means is that any Big Pharma seeking to acquire RGBP can NOT go around him to the share holders to negotiate offers to acquire the company which the share holders as a whole would decide, thus a "Hostile Take Over." With this arrangement only Koos can decide what offers to accept or not accept on his terms alone thereby putting him in full control.

List of Potential Acquiring Big Pharmas

I have listed these in the order of the highest probability from the top down and have provided a brief discussion on each of why I believe these Big Pharmas would be interested in acquiring RGBP. This is based on my professional opinion as a clinical trials physician with over 30+ Years history as a Principal Investigator who designed and managed the conduct of patient based clinical trials for Big Pharma's FDA approved Candidate Drug Patents.

The pharmaceutical companies I listed have one thing in common, they are among the Big Pharmas that have positioned themselves in the mRNA Vaccine Space that includes developing Cancer Vaccines.

I provided a link at the end of this discussion that shows the Top mRNA Cancer Vaccine Pharmaceutical Companies in the world at the present time.

#1
Gilead Sciences
Market Cap: $91.2 Billion
PPS: $ 72.80

Gilead Sciences acquired Kite Pharma in 2017 for $11.9 Billion Cash to add mRNA Vaccine Biotechnology to their therapeutic portfolio. This is a classic move many Big Pharms are known to make to expand their footprint in the pharmaceutical market place.

This single move positioned this company as a "first comer" in this transformative area of "Novel Therapeutic BioTechnology" that has the capacity to reshape Modern Medicine for treatment of serious diseases that historically respond poorly to conventional therapies. For those of you who aren't familiar with this term it's in reference to pioneering development of new drug therapies that have the capacity to exponentially increase treatment efficiency with substantially improved clinical outcomes and quality of life.

As a Clinical Trials Physician with more than 30+ years experience working in the pharmaceutical industry bringing candidate drug patents to market, I am introducing you to concepts from the Big Pharma world revealing what they ALL seek to achieve at any financial cost or otherwise, and the fact that Gilead was willing to pay Kite Pharma nearly $12 Billion to acquire their mRNA Vaccine Patent for treating various cancers should cause a light to come on in your perception of how Big Pharms think and what they're willing to do to stay ahead of the competition which is extraordinarily fierce.

Just think, Gilead took the chance to acquire Kite's Patent for BILLIONS when little was known in 2017 about mRNA Biotechnology, not knowing IF it would pan out in clinical trials and reach Market, but yet they shelled out that kind of money with insight from their scientific leadership that it was a significant "probability" it would, but yet they took the gamble anyway and it paid off in spades. This acquisition dramatically strengthened Gilead's Global market position and made them a serious player in the revolutionary mRNA Vaccine space. This represented one of the most significant advancements in modern medicine that scores of other Pharmaceutical companies since then are moving aggressively toward to carve out a place in this niche market.

My perception is Gilead would definitely be interested in acquiring RGBP in order to not only expand their foot print in the mRNA Vaccine Biotechnology space but also other areas of Novel Therapeutics based on the 24 Candidate Drug Patents RGBP has in their portfolio.

IMO if Gilead acquires RGBP that would very possibly put them on track to be named among the Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies in the world based on Annual Revenues. Currently their annual revenues are between $24 to $26 Billion as of 2020-21. They will need to double their revenues to make it into the Top Ten, and my perception is by them controlling more Patents in the mRNA vaccine space and also expanding their Biotechnology by developing RGBP's Patents they could very possibly accomplish this, but first they need to control more of the rapidly expanding mRNA Vaccine Market and acquiring RGBP is the "fast track" for that to happen. What the average person doesn't realize is this market is expanding exponentially in the wake of the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine coming to Market."

Some of you may recall that in one of my previous posts I characterized the Big Pharma industry as "cut throat" & "vicious" meaning Big Pharma companies will do whatever is necessary to gain control of market share in their respective markets, and that motive is by any means necessary where money is no obstacle. The single best example of this is Gilead acquiring Kite in 2017 shelling out $12 Billion for Kite's one (1) mRNA Vaccine Patent when little was known about it, and if a Big Pharma doesn't have billions in cash to do this they are known to form partnerships with other Big Pharmas to acquire Patents then share in the development cost and market revenues.

IMO, there will be several Big Pharmas in line, if not already, seeking to acquire RGBP and Dr. Koss is possibly in negotiations for the best deal for the sale of this company.

#2
Precigen
Market Cap:$1.2 Billion
PPS: $5.60

As most know the CEO of Precigen, Helen Sabzevari, was previously on RGBP's scientific advisory board and the company is in the Cancer-Oncology mRNA vaccine space the same as RGBP. IMO, it would behoove Precigen to acquire RGBP for the same reasons I described for Gilead.

Key Point: Keep in mind that in the Pharmaceutical Industry it's all about Control of Market Share based on independently developed and/or acquired Biotechnology and those Patents coming to Market. This is the cornerstone of what drives this Market.

Precigen acquiring RGBP would be a strategic move IF they're interested in strengthening their Market position and simultaneously not allowing RGBP's Disruptive Biotechnology Patents to be acquire by a competitor.

#3
Pfizer
Market Cap: $275 Billion
PPS: $49.25

We know that RGBP has had a prior collaborative arrangement with a Pfizer scientist in the development of their biotechnology. We also know that Pfizer is now a world leader in the mRNA vaccine space relative to Covid-19. Common sense dictates that they would seek to diversify their footprint into the cancer-oncology mRNA vaccine space to capture a substantial share of that Market which of course is a Multi-Billion dollar market no different than the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine space. They will need RGBP's current FDA approved Patent that's about to enter clinical trials to fast track themselves in that direction. This is based on basic common sense and they have the cash to acquire RGBP easily.

#4
Moderna
Market Cap: $154 Billion
PPS: $382

This Pharma like Pfizer has had great success in the mRNA Covid vaccine space and like Pfizer they need to move swiftly to diversify their Market position by expanding it to include an mRNA Vaccine for treating various forms of cancer. My understanding is that both Pfizer & Moderna are already moving in that direction and by acquiring RGBP, Moderna would benefit the most by needing to expand their therapeutic footprint thereby diversifying their market position and them moving into the oncology-immunology space with an mRNA cancer vaccine by acquiring RGBP would put them on the fast track in that direction AND they would benefit the most as a young company to own ALL 24 of RGBP's Patents that they can place in their clinical trials pipeline.

Due to their great success in the mRNA Covid Vaccine market that resulted in a dramatic rise in their PPS from the $20 range last year to nearly $500 this year, they definitely have the financial resources to acquire RGBP. Acquiring RGBP would be fundamentally transformative to this company and make them a major contender in the mRNA vaccine space as it relates to market diversification that ALL Big Pharmas seek.

#5
BioNTech
Market Cap: $85 Billion
PPS: $350

BioNTech is a German based Pharma trading on NASDAQ under the symbol BNTX. It was founded in 2008 and is considered to be a "New Technologies Next Generation Immunotherapy Company" developing novel therapies for various cancers and other serious diseases.

The Company has a wide range of discovery therapeutic platforms for the rapid development of novel biopharmaceutical Patents. It has a broad portfolio of oncology patent drug candidates that include individualized cancer type specific mRNA-based therapies, innovative chimeric antigen receptor T cells, bispecific checkpoint immuno-modulators, targeted cancer antibodies, and small molecules. Their approach to immuno-oncology drug discover is profound, highly advanced, rapid, and wide range.

The company has broad expertise in mRNA vaccine development and in-house manufacturing capacity. BioNTech has a myriad of Big Pharma collaborators for developing multiple mRNA vaccine candidates that includes targeting wide range of infectious diseases alongside its diverse oncology pipeline. It's Big Pharma collaborator/partnerships include Sanofi, Bayer, Genentech, Roche, Regeneron, and Pfizer.

This company is a prime example of how Big Pharmas aggressively form partnership arrangements with other Big Pharma players in order to fast track their scientific discoveries relative to developing novel candidate drug patents and leverage gaining market share much faster than if they were to go it alone.

This key point makes RGBP a prime candidate for acquisition by this company, not only to gain important scientific I.P. insights that can further their own candidate drug development prospects, but also ADD to placing drug patents instantly into their clinical trials pipeline that RGBP developed. Not only this, they have an extensive clinical trials pipeline infrastructure in house.

Here's the link to their company website

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-announces-first-patient-dosed-phase-2-clinical-trial

Link to the TOP mRNA Cancer Vaccines Pharmas in the world

https://www.ventureradar.com/keyword/Cancer%20Vaccines

It is my hope that the information I provided in my discussion serves many of you in your decision making about investing in RGBP and also builds confidence that you're in the right place at the right time.

Just know that the Patents RGBP has are absolutely worth Billions and there are many Big Pharmas who would substantially benefit from acquiring them not only to gain scientific insight into their own drug development processes, but also afford them with the luxury of placing many of RBGP drug Patents immediately into their clinical trials pipeline which is the "fast track" to any of them gaining Market share, keeping in mind that each of these Patents cost Millions to develop, required thousands of hours of scientific bench work, and many years or decades to develop.

Lastly, if a Buy Out/Acquisition occurs it will NOT be based alone on RGBP's current share price. It will be based on the perceived Market Value of this Company that includes ALL 24 of its Patents including the mRNA candidate drug patent for treating pancreatic and colon cancer that's presently entering clinical trials via Oncology Pharma.

Again as a reminder keep in mind Gilead acquired Kite in 2017 for nearly $12 Billion to obtain the ONLY Patent the company had at that time, i.e. it's disruptive biotechnology industry changing mRNA Vaccine Patent that in general is presently causing a paradigm shift in the practice of Modern Medicine! It is in fact defining the Future of Medicine.

I believe if RGBP is acquired it will be between $5.75 to $6.25 per Share (i.e. $21.7 Billion to $23.6 Billion), and with this it's important to keep in mind that the value of anything is based on what someone is willing to pay for it. NOTE: This is a revision of my prior estimate after taking into consideration that I strongly believe a "Bidding War" will take place over RGBP.

It's important to recognize that based on Gilead's Sciences acquisition of Kite this was based entirely on the mRNA Cancer Vaccine Patent Kite developed relative to its future global market potential, plus a premium on the prevailing share price at the time of acquisition, and again this was at a time when little was known about mRNA Biotechnology unlike today where everyone in the Industry knows about it and is highly motivated to carve out a piece of that Market in order to remain competitive in the rapidly advancing pharmaceutical landscape that's on the brink of radical transformation in medical therapeutics that will define the future of medicine. i.e. cures for cancer, Aids/HIV, and in some cases the elimination of life threatening diseases altogether.

Disclaimer: All the above is my professional opinion only based on my career experience and extensive knowledge of this industry.

Be well and prosper...