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08/28/21 11:57 AM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6874 and is trading up about 41% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. Currently, this market has been rising for 8 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 6174 yet it is trading below last month's close of 7395.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2021. Distinctly, we have elected one Bullish Reversal to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 6780 and overhead resistance forming above at 6945. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 5th at 7698, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 22nd. We have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 16.82%.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 26th reaching 7423 failed to exceed the previous high of 7698 made back during the week of July 5th. That rally amounted to only one week. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of July 19th but has closed back above it and is holding for now. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 4 weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 6761. Resistance is to be found starting at 7016. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in November 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5750 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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