Replies to post #396640 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[hyperopia]

I didn’t see your previous post senti, since I’m pretty far behind, but our numbers are way off. I was not the most dedicated student at the University of Hawaii, which itself is not exactly known as a bastion of higher education, so you could be right. :) But, I’ve never seen it calculated the way you did. That 1.174 figure that I got was as of June 30, from the tables in the Q, so that should be pretty close. Just glancing at your numbers, I can see your warrant figure is way different than what was listed in the table of the Q.

I generally don’t dig too deep into subsequent financing actions as they’re often on-going and changing during the current quarter. I merely glanced at the subsequent actions and notes to get the 15 million shares issued and the 4M additional warrant suspensions to calculate the 13-14M current figure, so that could certainly be off. If it was the result of warrant exercise, then that would reduce that liability.

Anyway, I don’t have time to double check right now, but I might tomorrow. I do think you’re correct about the friendlies who own many of those warrants helping Northwest Bio if they can, but I haven’t had time lately to verify the expiration dates of the warrants. Is that what Bigger’s comment the other day on Twitter was about? Was this discussed?

[exwannabe]

According my estimate, there are more like 1,123,338,956 total common stock, warrants, and options outstanding excluding the suspended warrants and options... as opposed to your number of 1.17 billion.

The total figure as of June 30 (straight from the 10Q) was:

857,200K shares (page 3)
305,779K options (page 13)
312,035K warrants (page 16)
---------
1.47B total

There is also about 75K in converts and whatever was issued post 6/30.

The company is required by charter to reserve the options (vested or not) as long as they are reasonably likely to be exercised. Even the unvested options will vest "soon", so the BOD may be a bit nervous about violating that as if things go south they could be liable.

The warrants and converts OTOH are contractual issues and going over the limit with them (restricted or not) is no issue unless somebody tries to exercise/convert and fails.

Even if you allow for the BOD to ignore the unvested options, there is the overhang that a bunch of warrants are likely to expire to "soon". Nobody is going to sit still and let them expire, so that is going to push the share count if nothing is done.

There is simply no "right" answer to the question of how many shares they could issue. The only hard fact is that they can not issue over 1.2M actual shares. Going above that with options and/or warrants is something they have done in the past, locked up or not. But it can be dangerous, and they have stated the limit as a concern for why they are locking.