Replies to post #16189 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Elmer Phud]

Blauboad -

I have a feeling I'm going to regret asking this, but from what data do you figure low output from FAB30? How much do you think should fab of Dresden's size and process be producing? And, is this the only reason you have for believing in low yields?

I've posted here and elsewhere all the tools and information anyone needs to calculate the rough theoretical output of AMD's fab(s). All you need is the die size, the wafer capacity and an estimate of the defect density which in the past we've assumed to be near industry standard for world class yields (after all, Jerry said AMD had the best yields in the world!). There are some unknowns like how much of that capacity is taken by process development and conversion but I think they account for no more than 10%. Those estimates continued to show that the output of Fab30 was consistently around 50% of what would be expected. Way the difference? One possibility is poor demand, but AMD had in the past frequently said they had ramped to full capacity. Hard to figure how they could be running at full capacity and producing so few parts. A likely explanation is poor binsplit, meaning the number of slow (unsaleable) parts is relatively high and AMD simply scraps them, rather than wasting the price of packaging parts that can't be sold. Otherwise, poor yield is the only explanation that explains both full capacity and low output. Low demand would preclude running at full capacity. SOI brings a whole new ballgame. We know that all things being equal it will yield lower than bulk silicon but we don't really have a good baseline to use to predict. Obviously AMD has poor yield for SOI compared to bulk silicon but is it poor yield compared to other SOI producers? I guess it doesn't really matter. What matters is the cost per die compared to the competition. Intel is not going to give up market share without a fight. If AMD produces enough Hammer family products to threaten Intel you will see price competition like you're not seeing now. When AMD's volumes reach a point where their ASPs face competition can they still reach profitability?