Replies to post #7547 on The Black Box

[sylvester80]

Yup. We are looking at the same picture wahz. Good post.

[Chris McConnel]

Given your bullish outlook for equitys, does a high inflation rate for next year make sense to you? It seems to me a high inflation rate would be very bullish for stocks.

[Bacchus_II]

One possibility I see is for the FED having a plan (if feasible) to engineer an almost instant 50% devaluation of USD. That would cut by half all dept, would remove instantly half the wealth of Baby Boomer and reduce inflation pressure. Stock would look like cheap in new USD price.

[dieselfuel]

"So the fed has been easy for a long time and is going to stay that way, fueling the economy to big gains...lets pretend that happens anyway...well so inflation kicks in a little and ol' ag being afraid to get agressive, he raises a 1/4 and another 1/4..and the old silly bastard chases inflation all the way up to 5% and gets rates to 7+ or higher. Banks will have a helluva time dealing with this..actually they won't deal with it, they'll collapse"

That's why rates will remain low for years to come.

Sure, the fed may raise rate 1 point over the course of a couple years or so, but not anything drastic.

AG was late cutting rates in 91'. He over tightened in the late 90's, to 2000.

He f**ks with the rates too much.

I hope he isn't stupid enough to raise the rates like he did in the late 90's (and I don't think he is. I like to think he learned a lesson).