The Black Box

[wahz]

you want a bearish case?:

with all these long term loans of 5-6% out there, how is it going to work when the fed has to tighten and the banks are borrowing at 5-6% or more from the fed?

So the fed has been easy for a long time and is going to stay that way, fueling the economy to big gains...lets pretend that happens anyway...well so inflation kicks in a little and ol' ag being afraid to get agressive, he raises a 1/4 and another 1/4..and the old silly bastard chases inflation all the way up to 5% and gets rates to 7+ or higher. Banks will have a helluva time dealing with this..actually they won't deal with it, they'll collapse.

I just thought i'd let you all in on the joke. The crash we had wasn't anything compared to what's coming
How do we avoid this?

Raise rates very aggressively from where they over the course of 1 year starting next summer. Stall the recovery without killing it and keep rates from having to rise a lot more

Ag is incapable of this