That lumber chart is something else. Up quickly and back down just as quick.
I don't think inflation will be transitory, but I also don't think it will be as steep as feared. I am thinking the real estate market, specifically the fluctuations on the single-family home mortgage rates, will be the tell. If/when home mortgage interest rates start to go up enough to slow down home sales, inflation is here to stay for awhile.
I became fully invested in crypto a bit later than you, and at a bit lower price, but I too am very much underwater. I am not concerned as I believe Bitcoin and Ethereum will be going much higher, however, the learning for me is charts work better for Crypto than M suggested in his trio of presentations.
As I mentioned prior, I have stopped flip-flopping my crypto holdings based on M's weekly signals. I will continue to hold Bitcoin (and add some more when I can!) until the M65 for both Bitcoin and Ethereum turn up.
The benefit of being one of his 100 to me will be the get-out-now signal once euphoria sets in and BTC is +$100,000 to maybe ~$250,000, which I do believe will occur within the next 18~24 months.
I also think this chart is a good overall barameter -