Replies to post #23216 on Cycle Trading

[Duma]

Absolutely, my favorties are ROKU, SQ, DOCU. They had good June as you said, but they need a reset.

[Duma]

I decided today to pull the plug on my Motely Fool experiment. There are several things that influenced me to do this. One for sure is that losses are now over 4% and climbing daily. All of my entries had pretty good daily entry points, but even that will not guarantee success.

So what it really boils down to is that I went into the program without the stomach to hold for success. Let me explain using ARKK as an example. ARKK holds a basket of stocks probable a lot like mine, so consider what has happened to it. Since 1/1/2019 it has gained 235% compared to SPY at 82% and QQQ at 139%. But there is a downside. In this same timeframe, ARKK had 3 pull backs of -65%, -61% and -40%.

So my big mistake was to not fully understand what I was proposing to do. There is no way that I am prepared to hold a basket of 25-35 stocks that could go through 60% + pull backs. In fact I was not even prepared mentally for a 4% pullback while NASDAQ has gained almost 4%. Also there is no way that I am prepared to start actively trading a big basket of stocks.

So why am I responding to dotnet? As I answered him, I am watching a few high fliers also and so I will replace the MF program with a renewed effort to watch and trade a few good movers.

So I have now sold 14 of my 23 holdings. I will let the other 9 playout until I get a sell signal. Maybe I will be able to recover some of my loses.