Replies to post #343346 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[lettruthringout]

What! You want me to take a position?

What odds do you give Amarin to get the Cert?

What Amarin has going for it is:

- low number of cases taken already for next term
- only two scheduled conferences left this term to choose cases
- pro-business bent favoring Amarin that appeals to conservative justices
- a controversy of the Supreme's own making for lack of clarity in Graham
- strong amicus brief detailing public health ramifications
- petitioner counsel familiar to and respected by justices

Having been through all of this week's cert review cases, there are some very worthy cases for review. Most of the maybe 65% of the 145 cases up for review are prisoner cases are not going anywhere (many handwritten). I may be wrong, but I don't see this court taking many cases of murder or child pornography petitioners no matter what the issue is. That leaves 30 or 40 cases of substance. But not really many "sexy" ones that grab the public's attention. Certainly the Amarin case is not an attention-grabber. What I haven't looked at, but the Court's clerks have, is what are the cases for the final scheduled conference. The clerks are forward looking and if they see some worthy cases for the following week, they may push less hard on a worthy case this week. If next week's cases are like this week's cases in substance, I might say flip a four-sided coin. If this week Amarin gets redistributed to the last scheduled conference, I'd say better than a 50% chance but again contingent on types of cases at that last conference.