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Replies to post #73227 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
05/31/21 8:57 PM
S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 420411 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 375607. Factually, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 423804 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 399278. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 418117.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2021. Clearly, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 420270 and overhead resistance forming above at 420952. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 3rd at 423804, which was up 32 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 21st. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of May 17th, which has been a move of .0374%.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
A closing above last year's high of 376020 will warn of perhaps new highs into next year. A closing below that number would warn that this year could be just a temporary high.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in March 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 363330 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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