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Replies to post #73301 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
06/06/21 9:23 PM
S&P 500 Cash Index opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. The overall oscillator position is also turning positive at this time. It closed today at 422989 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 375607. Factually, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2021. Clearly, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 421342.On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 3rd at 423804, which was up 32 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 21st. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 1.195% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of May 24th reaching 421836 failed to exceed the previous high of 423804 made back during the week of May 3rd. That rally amounted to only two typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 412859. Additional support is to be found at 403444.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
A closing above last year's high of 376020 will warn of perhaps new highs into next year. A closing below that number would warn that this year could be just a temporary high.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 14 months since the low established back in March 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 366260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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