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05/15/21 6:51 PM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6537 and is trading up about 34% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. This price action here in May is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 6676 intraday and is still trading above that high of 6547.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during March. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high eastablished back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 5 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 6453 and overhead resistance forming above at 6550. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 3rd at 6676, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 22nd. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 5.497% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of May 3rd reaching 6676 failed to exceed the previous high of 6798 made back during the week of March 8th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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