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05/31/21 9:30 PM
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened quite strong above the previous session's high 6692 reaching 6752 intraday. So far the market is still within a reactionary phase being up two trading days. Therefore, this market closed below the opening print while also closing down from the previous closing yet it was weak going into the close.
Presently, we are trading above our uptrend technical projection which rests at 6621. We did break below that level intraday. This warns that a penetration of today's low of 6617 will signal a correction is possible and any corresponding protective buy stop would have to be place above today's high of 6752 initially. If the market opens below today's low then expect a panic type sell-off. Otherwise, even a lower opening warrants caution.
Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 6482. Initial support lies at 6600. This market has exceeded intraday 2 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 6606 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Presently, the projected extreme resistance stands at 6892.
Additionally, our central point cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing warning that the upward momentum is subsiding. Given the fact that we have made a new high and this study just turned down today, caution is advised that this may prove to be a temporary high and a break of today's low of 6617 would tend to confirm that possibility. Furthermore, the short-term Stochastics have also signaled a possible crash is likely. During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 6399 settling at 6685. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 6495 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 6606. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 6617 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 6437 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 6495
Previous... 6399
Tomorrow... 6606
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 6702 while it has exceeded that level intraday. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during March. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high eastablished back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 5 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 6541 and overhead resistance forming above at 6651. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 24th at 6752, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 22nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 6752 to 6363. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 24th reaching 6752 has exceeded the previous high of 6676 made back during the week of May 3rd. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 6291. Additional support is to be found at 5873. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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