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Replies to post #4322 on SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
05/17/21 3:33 PM
The NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today at 183810 is immediately trading down about 3.00% for the year from last year's settlement of 189510. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into May reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 184710 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 170640. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 179840.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during March. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Nearest Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 5 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Nearest Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 181780 and overhead resistance forming above at 184250. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 10th at 184710, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 8th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 184710 to 180840. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 10th reaching 184710 has exceeded the previous high of 179840 made back during the week of April 19th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for two months. Since that low made in March, the market has rallied for 1 month. Meanwhile, the past month has witnessed a rally of 5.64% percent. A month-end closing below 170640 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 179840 to maintain a near-term upward rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 196250 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 207800 back during August 2020. Of course, that was the major high in this market, which means we have a downtrend for the past 8 months. Nevertheless, we have not elected any Monthly sell signal to date from the turning point of 08/01 on this monthly time level from that major high so there is still important underlying support which needs to be broken to change the trend on this time horizon. Critical support still underlies this market at 144610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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