Replies to post #45257 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[ls7550]

Data

What AIM of S&P500 real price index indicates as the March end of year % cash used to identify the % stock weighting, which we multiply by 0.8 so as to leave at least 20% not in stock .. and having identified the % stock to align to at the start of year, the rest is split 50/50 between cash (10 year Treasury) and gold.

The last three columns show the total nominal and real gains made from having set/held that for the year, along with the nominal gain achieved by all-stock (Total Stock Market) as a comparison.

 
 End	 AIM    Implied	x 0.8	10yrT	Gold	AIM     AIM	TSM 
 of      Cash   Stock             %       %     Nominal Real    Nominal 
 March   %       % 
 1972	52.0%	48.0%	38.4%	30.8%	30.8%	25.4	19.9	1.6 
 1973	52.0%	48.0%	38.4%	30.8%	30.8%	20.8	9.4	-13.1 
 1974	58.0%	42.0%	33.6%	33.2%	33.2%	1.2	-8.2	-8.3 
 1975	27.0%	73.0%	58.4%	20.8%	20.8%	12.2	5.8	28.8 
 1976	24.0%	76.0%	60.8%	19.6%	19.6%	6.1	-0.3	2.0 
 1977	25.0%	75.0%	60.0%	20.0%	20.0%	4.5	-1.9	-0.4 
 1978	29.0%	71.0%	56.8%	21.6%	21.6%	19.9	8.9	22.0 
 1979	29.0%	71.0%	56.8%	21.6%	21.6%	23.8	7.9	7.3 
 1980	31.0%	69.0%	55.2%	22.4%	22.4%	26.7	14.6	44.5 
 1981	28.0%	72.0%	57.6%	21.2%	21.2%	-14.9	-20.3	-14.0 
 1982	25.0%	75.0%	60.0%	20.0%	20.0%	41.5	36.6	46.2 
 1983	13.0%	87.0%	69.6%	15.2%	15.2%	3.4	-1.4	5.9 
 1984	24.0%	76.0%	60.8%	19.6%	19.6%	11.7	7.7	18.0 
 1985	22.0%	78.0%	62.4%	18.8%	18.8%	31.0	28.1	35.6 
 1986	36.0%	64.0%	51.2%	24.4%	24.4%	18.3	14.8	21.3 
 1987	31.0%	69.0%	55.2%	22.4%	22.4%	-1.6	-5.3	-8.1 
 1988	48.0%	52.0%	41.6%	29.2%	29.2%	2.8	-2.1	15.8 
 1989	47.0%	53.0%	42.4%	28.8%	28.8%	9.3	3.9	16.1 
 1990	44.0%	56.0%	44.8%	27.6%	27.6%	8.5	3.4	12.0 
 1991	43.0%	57.0%	45.6%	27.2%	27.2%	8.2	4.9	13.4 
 1992	49.0%	51.0%	40.8%	29.6%	29.6%	11.3	7.9	14.8 
 1993	47.0%	53.0%	42.4%	28.8%	28.8%	5.5	2.9	2.5 
 1994	47.0%	53.0%	42.4%	28.8%	28.8%	6.9	4.0	13.2 
 1995	46.0%	54.0%	43.2%	28.4%	28.4%	17.4	14.2	31.3 
 1996	54.0%	46.0%	36.8%	31.6%	31.6%	2.4	-0.4	15.4 
 1997	58.0%	42.0%	33.6%	33.2%	33.2%	16.4	14.9	47.4 
 1998	59.0%	41.0%	32.8%	33.6%	33.6%	4.6	2.9	12.9 
 1999	65.0%	35.0%	28.0%	36.0%	36.0%	6.4	2.5	24.0 
 2000	63.0%	37.0%	29.6%	35.2%	35.2%	-5.1	-7.8	-24.5 
 2001	68.0%	32.0%	25.6%	37.2%	37.2%	7.2	5.6	2.5 
 2002	69.0%	31.0%	24.8%	37.6%	37.6%	4.8	1.8	-24.2 
 2003	69.0%	31.0%	24.8%	37.6%	37.6%	21.2	19.2	39.1 
 2004	63.0%	37.0%	29.6%	35.2%	35.2%	2.0	-1.1	7.1 
 2005	62.0%	38.0%	30.4%	34.8%	34.8%	16.9	13.1	14.4 
 2006	61.0%	39.0%	31.2%	34.4%	34.4%	10.3	7.3	11.1 
 2007	60.0%	40.0%	32.0%	34.0%	34.0%	15.5	11.0	-5.8 
 2008	62.0%	38.0%	30.4%	34.8%	34.8%	-8.5	-8.2	-37.9 
 2009	60.0%	40.0%	32.0%	34.0%	34.0%	21.5	18.7	52.8 
 2010	50.0%	50.0%	40.0%	30.0%	30.0%	17.4	14.4	17.5 
 2011	56.0%	44.0%	35.2%	32.4%	32.4%	12.8	9.9	7.2 
 2012	55.0%	45.0%	36.0%	32.0%	32.0%	5.2	3.7	14.3 
 2013	53.0%	47.0%	37.6%	31.2%	31.2%	1.1	-0.4	22.5 
 2014	58.0%	42.0%	33.6%	33.2%	33.2%	4.6	4.7	12.2 
 2015	55.0%	45.0%	36.0%	32.0%	32.0%	2.3	1.4	-0.6 
 2016	56.0%	44.0%	35.2%	32.4%	32.4%	5.7	3.3	18.0 
 2017	63.0%	37.0%	29.6%	35.2%	35.2%	6.0	3.5	13.7 
 2018	60.0%	40.0%	32.0%	34.0%	34.0%	3.8	1.9	8.7 
 2019	60.0%	40.0%	32.0%	34.0%	34.0%	10.1	8.4	-9.3 
 2021	61.0%	39.0%	31.2%	34.4%	34.4%	18.9	16.7	62.6 
  
 

[ls7550]

Swapping out Total Stock Market for 'stock' to hold small cap value instead (perhaps VISVX) and setting weightings to the broad AIM indicated average since 1972 ... resulted in a 11.2% annualised (7.1% annualised real) compared to 10.3% for all-stock. Worst (calendar) year -6.5% (compared to -37% for all-stock).