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Re: ls7550 post# 45257

Monday, 04/12/2021 7:57:05 PM

Monday, April 12, 2021 7:57:05 PM

Post# of 47130
Data

What AIM of S&P500 real price index indicates as the March end of year % cash used to identify the % stock weighting, which we multiply by 0.8 so as to leave at least 20% not in stock .. and having identified the % stock to align to at the start of year, the rest is split 50/50 between cash (10 year Treasury) and gold.

The last three columns show the total nominal and real gains made from having set/held that for the year, along with the nominal gain achieved by all-stock (Total Stock Market) as a comparison.


End AIM Implied x 0.8 10yrT Gold AIM AIM TSM
of Cash Stock % % Nominal Real Nominal
March % %
1972 52.0% 48.0% 38.4% 30.8% 30.8% 25.4 19.9 1.6
1973 52.0% 48.0% 38.4% 30.8% 30.8% 20.8 9.4 -13.1
1974 58.0% 42.0% 33.6% 33.2% 33.2% 1.2 -8.2 -8.3
1975 27.0% 73.0% 58.4% 20.8% 20.8% 12.2 5.8 28.8
1976 24.0% 76.0% 60.8% 19.6% 19.6% 6.1 -0.3 2.0
1977 25.0% 75.0% 60.0% 20.0% 20.0% 4.5 -1.9 -0.4
1978 29.0% 71.0% 56.8% 21.6% 21.6% 19.9 8.9 22.0
1979 29.0% 71.0% 56.8% 21.6% 21.6% 23.8 7.9 7.3
1980 31.0% 69.0% 55.2% 22.4% 22.4% 26.7 14.6 44.5
1981 28.0% 72.0% 57.6% 21.2% 21.2% -14.9 -20.3 -14.0
1982 25.0% 75.0% 60.0% 20.0% 20.0% 41.5 36.6 46.2
1983 13.0% 87.0% 69.6% 15.2% 15.2% 3.4 -1.4 5.9
1984 24.0% 76.0% 60.8% 19.6% 19.6% 11.7 7.7 18.0
1985 22.0% 78.0% 62.4% 18.8% 18.8% 31.0 28.1 35.6
1986 36.0% 64.0% 51.2% 24.4% 24.4% 18.3 14.8 21.3
1987 31.0% 69.0% 55.2% 22.4% 22.4% -1.6 -5.3 -8.1
1988 48.0% 52.0% 41.6% 29.2% 29.2% 2.8 -2.1 15.8
1989 47.0% 53.0% 42.4% 28.8% 28.8% 9.3 3.9 16.1
1990 44.0% 56.0% 44.8% 27.6% 27.6% 8.5 3.4 12.0
1991 43.0% 57.0% 45.6% 27.2% 27.2% 8.2 4.9 13.4
1992 49.0% 51.0% 40.8% 29.6% 29.6% 11.3 7.9 14.8
1993 47.0% 53.0% 42.4% 28.8% 28.8% 5.5 2.9 2.5
1994 47.0% 53.0% 42.4% 28.8% 28.8% 6.9 4.0 13.2
1995 46.0% 54.0% 43.2% 28.4% 28.4% 17.4 14.2 31.3
1996 54.0% 46.0% 36.8% 31.6% 31.6% 2.4 -0.4 15.4
1997 58.0% 42.0% 33.6% 33.2% 33.2% 16.4 14.9 47.4
1998 59.0% 41.0% 32.8% 33.6% 33.6% 4.6 2.9 12.9
1999 65.0% 35.0% 28.0% 36.0% 36.0% 6.4 2.5 24.0
2000 63.0% 37.0% 29.6% 35.2% 35.2% -5.1 -7.8 -24.5
2001 68.0% 32.0% 25.6% 37.2% 37.2% 7.2 5.6 2.5
2002 69.0% 31.0% 24.8% 37.6% 37.6% 4.8 1.8 -24.2
2003 69.0% 31.0% 24.8% 37.6% 37.6% 21.2 19.2 39.1
2004 63.0% 37.0% 29.6% 35.2% 35.2% 2.0 -1.1 7.1
2005 62.0% 38.0% 30.4% 34.8% 34.8% 16.9 13.1 14.4
2006 61.0% 39.0% 31.2% 34.4% 34.4% 10.3 7.3 11.1
2007 60.0% 40.0% 32.0% 34.0% 34.0% 15.5 11.0 -5.8
2008 62.0% 38.0% 30.4% 34.8% 34.8% -8.5 -8.2 -37.9
2009 60.0% 40.0% 32.0% 34.0% 34.0% 21.5 18.7 52.8
2010 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 17.4 14.4 17.5
2011 56.0% 44.0% 35.2% 32.4% 32.4% 12.8 9.9 7.2
2012 55.0% 45.0% 36.0% 32.0% 32.0% 5.2 3.7 14.3
2013 53.0% 47.0% 37.6% 31.2% 31.2% 1.1 -0.4 22.5
2014 58.0% 42.0% 33.6% 33.2% 33.2% 4.6 4.7 12.2
2015 55.0% 45.0% 36.0% 32.0% 32.0% 2.3 1.4 -0.6
2016 56.0% 44.0% 35.2% 32.4% 32.4% 5.7 3.3 18.0
2017 63.0% 37.0% 29.6% 35.2% 35.2% 6.0 3.5 13.7
2018 60.0% 40.0% 32.0% 34.0% 34.0% 3.8 1.9 8.7
2019 60.0% 40.0% 32.0% 34.0% 34.0% 10.1 8.4 -9.3
2021 61.0% 39.0% 31.2% 34.4% 34.4% 18.9 16.7 62.6


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