Replies to post #305829 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[boi568]

I don't expect a hostile buyout attempt before the adult Rett results are available. As you suggested, it would be premature; there is too much uncertainty to be able to fix a reasonable price. In that case, AVXL could invoke the poison pill possibility without worrying about fiduciary responsibilities. Further, corporate suitors are themselves also bureaucracies that are uncomfortable gambling on a proper price.

That's not to say, though, that there might have been an early contact or two at this point. I just don't think it would have gone anywhere.

Things could clearly get more interesting once the AVATAR results appear and, as we expect, confirm Rett efficacy. This is the point at which a price tag -- at least a price tag with a known floor -- can be established. I would expect at least a private offer to appear ($3B minimum); I also expect AVXL would reject it. Once again, the uncertainties of valuing other indications would support use of our legal defenses. A buyer would have to make a very generous offer (say, on the order of $10B) to force an open fight. I fear this, but I don't expect it. It suffers from most of the prematurity issues discussed above.

Eventually, the value of the Alzheimer's indication will round into view. That's when the battle is most likely. I think we are a year away.

[baltimorebullet]

I think there's also considerable career risk for any CEO who would want to go after almost unknown Anavex with it's almost unknown MOA.

But as you say, things are changing.