Replies to post #358163 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[longfellow95]

If dcvax works, nwbo sells itself. They have no expertise in manufacturing, marketing, or sales. An approved dcvax is worth more to a company that could ramp it up quickly.

The first part is so true Jerry. And if we both believe that to be the case, then marketing and sales departments are surplus to requirements..
(Actually, there's no difference between 'marketing' and 'sales' as far as I'm concerned. So that's just one dept they don't need, because DCVax-L will sell itself.)

And they have a decade and more of manufacturing expertise.
Cognate and NWBO were somewhat entwined for a long time, in case you have forgotten. And Cognate simply fulfilled manufacture of an NWBO-specified (and part UCLA-devised) production process.
'The process is the product'.
As LP knows and has told us. She is all too aware of the post-approval manufacturing problems that beset Dendreon (and the Car-T guys, to some extent).
And if the Flaskworks tech enhances things, then all well and good.
As far as I'm concerned, LP is 'ahead of the game' as much as anyone can be, on this front.

And the consortium that funded the original management buyout of Cognate, and funded the subsequent acquisition of Cobra Biologics by Cognate, have surely done rather nicely from the sale of Cognate. That's EW Healthcare Partners, Medivate, Tennenbaum (now swallowed by BlackRock), and the mystery Sovereign Wealth Fund.
I'm sure that the same guys would favourably consider a similar strategic investment in Advent, if it was required.

The sale of Cognate had been anticipated by several of us here in the last few months.
And no doubt LP, and Toucan, and J Kelly Ganjei also walked away financially to the good.
Though I'm not sure whether Ganjei 'walked away' or retained a role within CRL.
There is absolutely no reason why Advent could not follow the Cognate example, by having NWBO as their initial major client.
LP has been there, seen it, and done it.
I wouldn't mind if Ganjei moved to head up Advent, seeing as he has already demonstrated the required aptitude. Though that is perhaps just a small possibility; he might not want to relocate, for one.

No rush to submit application for a marketing authorisation in the UK and Europe, because it's pointless until you have your CMC pretty well taped, and your manufacturing facility on line (or nearly ready)
So, as Ike pointed out, that's exactly what they are doing at Sawston right now.
And, to be honest, no pressing rush to release your trial data, if you are not ready to wack in your MAA soon after. Keep cards close to chest.
No reason why NWBO necessarily have to do things in the conventionally expected manner and order. And the evident focus on the UK and Europe rather than the US, is another example of that.

Something I don't dislike about LP. She does it her way.

[skitahoe]

Jerry,

It's my belief that a partnership with a BP would be of far greater benefit. As you point out the BP's have the resources to bring the vaccine to market faster, a partnership can give us that.

My problem with a buyout is, how do you properly value DCVax-Direct. I believe that this product could potentially be worth more than DCVax-L. I think after it's used on inoperable tumors there is little doubt in my mind that they'll look at it's use prior to surgery, if that's successful, this could be the biggest oncology product ever. I simply cannot see selling the company before you know at least a little more about the capability of this drug. In addition DCVax-L may also work with numerous solid cancers, how can you get a fair price without knowing more about that.

Frankly the company could contract for services they need post approval, but I believe a partnership will be better as it will bring in the funding needed for additional trials. Unless a buyer is willing to pay an exorbitant price when so little is known about how many cancers the vaccines may be effective for I cannot see them selling out.

Gary

[learningcurve2020]

Disagree Jerry. Bottom line, Powers, LL and Cognate likely worked many years together to perfect the dc manufacturing process that is now in the hands of Rivers. Something doesn't add up.

[scotty3371]

The reality is nwbo shares went higher after they purchased flaskworks.

River paid an obscene 18xish revenues for cognate.

IF NWBO BOT COGNANT FOR STOCK, SHARES WOULD OPEN AT 4+.

Can't you see what the market likes?

[Poor Man -]

A merger between Cognate and NWBO never made strategic sense, unless from an investment perspective it was Cognate acquiring NWBO for no other reason than NWBO’s stock price was very low and maybe they could structure the transaction as a reverse merger to in effect turn Cognate into the public company, In fact, I was concerned that Toucan might try pull something like that off prior to the MBO.

There are a lot of possible caveats as to why Toucan/LP didn’t go down that road, and instead just monetized their ownership in Cognate, while retaining ownership in NWBO.

. I don't think nwbo buying Cognate was ever a consideration, but that's because I don't believe that "go it alone" has ever been a viable strategy.