Replies to post #300090 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Biostockclub]

Thanks, Phil - that’s a Bingo! Nicely put.

Additionally, I’ll add to clear up any misconceptions out there:

The Anavex Open Label Ph2a had 32 original patients. I believe approximately 21 were remaining after 5 years to receive the SAS from Australia to continue receiving the drug - A2-73, Blarcamesine.


Some wild numbers being thrown around for SAVA’s Sumifilam, early results. Actual numbers: the Ph2a lasted for 28 days and contained 64 patients with 3 arms - 2 dosed and a placebo. That means 42 dosed patients. Remember that number. They dosed 42, we had 32.

That trial was concluded in Sept 2020.

The open label extension - no placebo group - contained 50 of the original 64 participants, all dosed.

The data from these patients, dosed from October 2020 - Jan 2021, 4 months total, no placebo, 50 patients, were submitted for FDA approval to design a Ph3 trial. That’s fine. These are the correct parameters (number of patients, timeframe).
(14 drop outs equaling 21% - did not enter or complete the OLE).
After 4 months 21% dropped out. Compare to Anavex, after 5 years)!), 33% dropped out. (20% were expected to have no response based on post hoc information! Amazing.)

This is why the market reaction of a share price rise in excess of 400% for SAVA at this juncture is based entirely on potential and no fundamentals. Our fundamentals were very similar circa 2016 and as of the 5 year timeframe with further trial results from other indications, Anavex has definitely hit the precision mother lode and runs rings around this company - on sheer head to head match up.


However, if folks want to justify market caps, I offered a compromise comprised of AVXL treating 80% of the AD population (based on the Sigmar wt gene response correlation) and would be fine if SAVA and/or Biogen split 20% of the “pie” which might not respond to A2-73.


In that case, treat SAVA’s MC and the estimates of the AD market applied to Biogen’s Adu as the whole pie and cut our slice as 80%.


That’s a fair way to divide that pie, imo, for the current market size - those who currently suffer from AD.


For the prophylactic market, which Anavex addresses, but the other 2 drugs do not (downstream symptoms only) - we take 100% of the pie.


Them’s the facts.

Tennis anyone?

Thanks TempePhil as always,
Bio