Replies to post #22330 on Cycle Trading

[No-Quarter]

I believe I stumbled onto the same article you did -

Is This A New Commodity Super Cycle?

To answer your question;

Oil - NRGU/NRGD
https://schrts.co/QUcjpIZt
https://schrts.co/iejKpvxf
https://schrts.co/bCTYpRYR

Gold - UGL/GLL
https://schrts.co/DVeSCmMC
https://schrts.co/JafqFwYy
https://schrts.co/QvBfDisz

Silver - AGQ/ZSL
https://schrts.co/KGrQQuxp
https://schrts.co/VyTpBcgG
https://schrts.co/jnJKSHiv

Consumer Discretionary - WANT
https://schrts.co/CUNjuadk
https://schrts.co/aNngzMwA

Other ideas for you; https://etfdb.com/etfs/sector/consumer-discretionaries/

[No-Quarter]

To answer the question you didn't ask (which one), I suggest you pay attention to NatGas in the coming days, weeks, and 2-3 months.

https://schrts.co/iGRSStDI
https://schrts.co/kmiCxVgq
https://schrts.co/ReBeaDNB

I can't find a link at the moment to support this, but it is widely believed Morgan Stanley holds a tremendous amount of short positions in the NatGas market and can 'bang the tape' at will.

Speculation is NatGas futures have not skyrocketed this past week due to the current localized spot price spikes is because the market is already trading March contracts, a seasonally warmer month, and short-sellers have already positioned themselves for the comming warmer weather on the short side of the market.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-futures-capped-by-stubborn-short-sellers-while-spot-prices-soar-700293

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-weekly-price-forecast-natural-gas-forms-neutral-candlestick-700138

Also, it is widely believed the US has at least a 100 year supply of NatGas in the ground, and NatGas is produced as an almost free by-product of oil production.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natgas-has-strong-showing-on-cold-weather-699609

OK, now the interesting part. We now have the Biden administration getting its feet underneath it, and one of their stated objectives during the campaign was to reduce the oil supply coming out of the US.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/1/22/biden-s-plan-to-cut-us-oil-production-becomes-clearer

Oil prices in the past 2-3 months have increased largely due to the reduced production, both actual and anticipated in the coming months, caused by Bidens actions.

You can see the effect clearly on this chart.

https://schrts.co/BpevzzFj

Pay particular note of what happened on the above chart the first week of November, election week.

Now look at the next chart at what DOES NOT HAPPEN during the same week and beyond to Nat Gas.

https://schrts.co/zvCKjMGN

Strange, right? Since NatGas production is dependant on Oil production, something appears to be amiss.

Now check out what the author of the below article has to say about electricity costs going sky high next week due to the current polar vortex,

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/power-bills-moon-chaos-shock-electricity-prices-across-us-explode?utm_campaign=&utm_content=Zerohedge%3A+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter

...and his speculation the same will be happening to NatGat with this pull quote.

On Thursday, when we reported that nat gas prices across the plains states had soared to never before seen levels as a result of a brutal polar vortex blast... ... which literally froze off nattie supply as wellheads freeze-offs, cutting production receipts just when they're most needed by customers' demand for heating, we said that since the winter blast is expected to last for the duration of the week, it is likely that nattie prices across the plains states could hit GME batshit levels.

If speculation of a huge short position on NatGas (by Morgan Stanley or any other like-sized entity) is correct, NatGas WILL NOT spike up next week as this author speculates. It will be held down. I will be watching this next 7-10 days to see how this plays out.

Now for the really interesting part, the author of this next article believes the corresponding move in NatGas is actually coming, in a more planned and strategic way, and the move once initiated will be violent as the massive NatGas short positions are unwound, and entities like Morgan Stanley reposition themselves on the other side of the market, to now be in lockstep with oil.

...and it will begin in March!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/jpmorgan-predicts-biggest-short-squeeze-yet-begins-next-month?utm_campaign=&utm_content=Zerohedge%3A+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter

Myself, my plan is to watch from afar the next 7-10 days for any run-up in NatGas. IF it happens, I will not chase it. I will just watch and be amused. However, if it does not happen, I believe it gives credence to the author's theory that something bigger is afoot in the NatGas market, that a bigger change is coming and it will begin in March, and I will look for BOIL to present an entry opportunity in the coming weeks, and buy BOIL.

GLTY