Replies to post #298637 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[RedShoulder]

NWDR, can you please link this chart, I spent an hour yesterday with Google looking for a similar chart with no luck, thanks.

[vg_future]

Thanks NWDR. Minor clarification/suggestion...I think. To my knowledge, the valuation of a company if taken as a multiple of the EPS is usually done on an annual level..not quarterly. So, for ex, if you take RETT into consideration, the EPS should be $3.20 (yearly/annual) and not 80 cents (per quarter) as your calculations show. Am I right in my thinking.
I really appreciate the table..very very useful in getting a bigger picture.

-vg_future

[Huggy2]

I’m very interested I you assessment here and looking at the 90 million shares at the top of the chart. Would I be correct to believe that is where your expecting the outstanding shares to be at in the future? Please correct me if I’ve misunderstood.

[Kmadd]

I wonder if part of the hold up on approval is drug pricing disxussions, especially in Australia? Part of the significance of the Anavex development story is the low cost of R&D.
I would have estimated sales/person would be 10x less than your guess in the spreadsheet, which is in the neighborhood of $60/pill. The quandary, it still costs far less than SOC in any indication.

What will insurance/government see as fair value per dose?

[frrol]

Good to see forward looking sharecount, this is what investors use. 90 million is probably about right, for options, warrants and future issuance to support development (at 50% revenue share there may be no upfront licensing money).

[Investor2014]

Nice spreadsheet. An important part of DD in a biotech portfolio management strategy.

[RedShoulder]

Fragile-X is in the Anavex pipeline, see the graph showing Fragile-X planed out to a pivotal phase-3 trial. Preclinical has been completed, look for the start of a phase trail in the near future.

Classified as a rare orphan disease like Rett, expect it also to be a short trial with possible FDA 'Fast Track' designation, and as a rare disease possibly with a voucher awarded like Rett.

https://www.anavex.com/#!/pipeline

Fragile-X will be a much larger market than Rett. In fact 8 times larger.

With an estimated 88,000 cases in the US, also 88,000 cases in Europe, 61,000 cases in Japan. With 40% treated the estimated revenue is 2.27 Billion USD.

Then add in the rest of the world which would be a very large additional number.

A special thanks to NWDR for the statistics.

Randi J. Hagerman, M.D. who has lead the very successful Rett trials has this to say about Fragile-X, Parkinson, and Alzheimer:

"Fragile X Spectrum Disorders (FXSD) include Fragile X syndrome (FXS), the most common single gene cause of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and the most common heritable cause of intellectual disability, and several premutation disorders characterized by the premutation of FMR1."

"Premutation disorders have become more widely recognized over the last decade and they include the most common genetic cause of early ovarian failure and infertility, FXPOI, the fragile X-associated neuropsychiatric disorders (FXAND) and a neurodegenerative disorder of older carriers called the fragile X-associated tremor ataxia syndrome (FXTAS)."

"The need for treatments that improve mitochondrial function, such as Anavex 2-73 can make a difference for both neurodevelopmental disorders and neurodegenerative disorders including Rett syndrome, FXS, Parkinson Disease, Alzheimer Disease and FXTAS. Future new treatments for FXSD will be reviewed including genetic interventions."

https://health.ucdavis.edu/mindinstitute/videos/images/dls/hagerman-2021-dls.pdf

[RedShoulder]

Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is in the Anavex pipeline, see the graph showing a phase-1 trial.
https://www.anavex.com/#!/pipeline

FTD has been granted orphan drug designation by the FDA.

It will be the Anavex's first trail using ANAVEX®3-71 which is a small molecule that is intended to target the M1 and sigma-1 muscarinic receptors.

The phase 1 clinical trial is a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study. A total of 36 healthy male and female subjects.

FTD will be a much larger market than Rett, 5 times larger.

With an estimated 55,000 cases in the US, also 55,000 cases in Europe, 13,000 cases in Japan. With 40% treated the estimated revenue is 1.18 Billion USD.

Then add in the rest of the world which would be a large additional number.

A special thanks to NWDR for the statistics.

"Anavex is developing ANAVEX®3-71 initially for the treatment of Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD)"
https://www.anavex.com/anavex-life-sciences-announces-initiation-of-first-in-human-phase-1-study-of-anavex3-71-af710b/

"ANAVEX®3-71 is a small molecule that is intended to target the M1 and sigma-1 muscarinic receptors. It is administered orally. The FDA granted it the Orphan Drug designation for the treatment of FTD"
https://patientworthy.com/2020/06/01/anavex371-treatment-for-neurodegenerative-diseases/