Replies to post #146581 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[kgromax]

Nope. For 3 reasons:

(1) Placebo mortality shall not be 27% but 15-25% - because, as written in my post, milder cases have to be mixed in, whether we call them "severe" or "low-risk-severes", and whatever the realistic mix ratio you choose

(2) Deaths are at least 87. Because there were 9 days left in the study when Nader Pourhassan the CEO revealed the 87 deaths. I estimated based on the disclosed December numbers and mortality curves published in various research papers that these days shall have added roughly 3 deaths to the count (plus or minus something). So a total of 90 deaths on average

(3) These are already bad statistics. But what makes it work is statistical power (i.e. probability under these mortality rates that a statistically significant effect is detected): if you compute the power properly you will see...the trial is heading for failure.