Replies to post #239 on Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK)

[H2R]

Hi Thermo,

I wonder if you would indulge me. I'm trying to figure out the potential for OTLK.

Context

1) The projection a few years out of the AMD seems to be around $11B
https://www.globaldata.com/age-related-macular-degeneration-market-will-rocket-11-5bn-2026/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link

2) OTLK estimates a $13B market for FDA-approved anti-VEGFs for ophthalmic use
https://outlooktherapeutics.com/lytenava-overview/

3) There is currently no bevacizumab approved for ophthalmic indications in the United States
https://outlooktherapeutics.com/lytenava-clinical-progress/

4) OFF LABEL Avastin has a lion share of the market (at least US?)
“Based on GlobalData’s primary research, in the US around 50% of patients with wet AMD are prescribed Avastin
https://www.globaldata.com/nhs-victory-bayer-novartis-significant-impact-uk-ophthalmology-sales-says-globaldata/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link

Rough Estimate
IF ONS-5010 is indeed approved for those markets, it seems that a $500M revenue would be a conservative peak sales estimate.

In the world of biotech, I see market cap from 5 to 10 times the revenue. 7 times would mean an MC of $3.5B, or over 7 times the current MC.

Your thoughts?
How does the above estimate jive with your own thoughts? Is that in the ball park of your own estimate?

Thanks for your thought!

Best of luck with your investments!