Exercise of the warrants does nothing to reduce the liquidating preference or the dividend.
My understanding is that the dividend does not kick in until they hit $250 (or their Capital requirement). But yes, after that the dividend will prevent them from benefiting from most, if not all of their earnings.
No, it doesn't. The first $70B of common equity each GSE raises accretes directly to capital (all forms: core, Tier 1, CET1). All equity raises after that have their proceeds go to Treasury instead of FnF, and the senior pref liquidation preference gets reduced by that amount.
The NWS-like dividend of all net worth increases from the previous quarter doesn't kick in until FnF have hit full with-buffers capitalization, under Calabria's rule (even if a future FHFA director changes it), and stayed there for two quarters. That's $265B as of June 30 2020, and will likely be over $300B by the time it matters because it is based on FnF's asset base, which grows each year.
At that point, yes, Treasury will get 10% of the liquidation preference in dividends each year, or all of FnF's earnings if it is less (and it almost certainly will be). So it's like the NWS but with a much, much higher cap.
No. The seniors and warrants are entirely different things. Per the terms of the document, the warrants must be exercised in full before FnF can sell new common shares.
I expect an exercise of the warrants anyway. It could be soon or right before capital is raised.