Hi Poor Man, Thanks for your comments on the NWBO Market Cap model.
Regarding your questions I'll try to answer as best as possible (please other board members chime in at your leisure):
1) Why isn’t the valuation for L at least the same as for NVCR at year 1 - why the discrepancy; Yes good question. Not that I'm a financial expert but looking (as of this morning) at NVCR's Market Cap/Revenues ratio I calculate about 39.8. Comparing this to Merck's MC/Rev ratio of about 4.3, it seems that NVCR Market Cap is getting way ahead of itself. Either my model assumptions are way too conservative or NVCR's valuation is way over done, or both.
2) Why isn’t the valuation for L and D separated out; If I had the time and the data, yes that would be a better analysis. And while we are at it, my model only examined new cancer patients. Adding recurrent cancer patients to the model would cause NWBO's valuation to explode. My model is very very conservative and treats DCVax as a platform technology.
3) Doesn’t approval in Germany apply to all EU countries - so shouldn’t the rollouts happen about the same time for all countries; Yes good point, however doing a multi-market rollout with a complex technology/treatment isn't that easy specially if NWBO (and potentially it's partners) need to build out it's process infrastructure. I don't think that NWBO can implement this new cancer treatment platform on a turn of a switch, so a multi-country phased rollout is most likely the best strategy
4) What is the assumption for how long various indications for D can go through the approval process from each of the RAs? I have no idea. The question is better answered by other board members that are more knowledgeable in this area then I am. Basically, this question is above my pay grade.
GLTU and all NWBO longs!
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