Bought first, asked questions, took my 20% gain and sold today. Poster over on IV made a point and FEC.TO is dramatically cheaper, less riskier, and should be able to ramp back up to 60,000 boepd pretty quick (they did maybe 63k in Q1 before Covid shut ins).
GTE (US listing all $USD) has 785mm of debt, 20mm of cash and a 142mm MC for an EV of 902mm and has guided for 29,000 boepd in 2021.
FEC.TO has an EV of 359mm ex-strategic port assets (see slide 6 of presentation below, adjusted $C 2.10 SP for current 3.43 SP) and 239mm of cash. They are not even close to going under. They screwed up big time and hedged most of Q4 and Q1-21 production at $35 Brent. Big Oops. Market will look past this eventually. Currently producing 43k boepd.
FEC.TO is the old Pacific Rubiales that was pumped to the moon and had a stratospheric valuation. I don’t know the whole story but it is mostly Colombia and Ecuador so there is risk. Look at the latest pipeline PR for example.
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