Replies to post #313216 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[louieblouie]

Reminder - in Europe - 10 years of exclusivity providing there are no new indications.

If Vascepa proves to be beneficial for NASH, Alzheimers and Covid - they could potentially add one more year exclusivity for each added indication which takes exclusivity to 2034 - with the maximum exclusivity of 2039 depending how many indications approved in all.

[rosemountbomber]

Could, the agreed to price I think might be a big hurdle. Amarin says hey we are worth X. BP says V is only worth X if we develop it. Amarin on its own cannot turn V into X only BP can. BP says why should we pay you what V would be worth after we develop it? They have to meet somewhere in between and probably even a little lower - if JT's ego isn't in the way.

If this gets into the mid teens somehow and if there are no other impactful changes that would affect V in a positive way I cannot take another chance that JT screws something up so I will have to take it and run --- too old to wait for another shot.

[Biobillionair]

Regarding timing of a deal, I think by the end of January. From the Marksman article: “The longer the case drags on, the higher Hikma’s damages exposure becomes.”

There is also another form of relief available to Amarin that was unavailable in Nevada. That includes damages. Hikma’s generic has already launched. If Hikma’s sales are infringing, then Hikma owes Amarin damages. The principle way to calculate those damages would be Amarin’s lost profits. In theory, that could amount to a lot of money, and technically eclipse Hikma’s own profits. Yet, Hikma’s drug launched only a few weeks ago. Accordingly, the size of Amarin’s damages at this point are likely negligible. That said, this facet may put pressure on Hikma to settle. The longer the case drags on, the higher Hikma’s damages exposure becomes.

If the case goes to full trial and Hikma doesn’t stop selling into cardiovascular indication the damages could literally wipe out Hikma’s entire business.

JPM in January, EU approval in January, NASH in January, phase 3 COVID results readout in January

I don’t think we see February without significant buyout news.

https://www.markmanadvisors.com/blog/2020/12/2/will-amarins-new-cardiovascular-patent-lawsuit-against-hikma-keep-out-generic-sales

BB