Replies to post #311107 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[louieblouie]

I think you won't see any major action from Hikma on this issue until the Teva case is settled. Should it go against Teva - Hikma will restrain itself. If it goes for Teva - my guess is that it could get a lot uglier for AMRN.

[dukesking]

Sleven, I agree with your assumption but I have one concern. I keep hearing statements that Hikma won’t infringe as long as they keep it under 10% of Vascepa sales. I don’t think that’s accurate. It has been estimated that less than 1 in 10 Vascepa scripts are for the Marine indication. I think that estimate is only relevant to the current and past sales of Vascepa before the CVD label and I think that’s a high number. Going forward, I believe that number will continue to shrink and eventually become 1 in 50 scripts or 2% of Vascepa sales. It won’t be 10% forever. It’s probably a moot point as I also believe Hikma will try to capture as much of the US CVD market as they can based on production restraints only. JT must address this with a lawsuit and or a true authorized generic Vascepa. Hikma is not generic Vascepa it’s generic Icosapent ethyl. IMO.

[postes]

Sleven...before Hikma's Ceo made a huge blunder by saying they have an API shortage untill 20217 I think they were going for much more than the Marine label...but I think the big question is Hikma does not have enough API for WHAT?
If Hikma reaches 10.percent of the mkt by year end or early next year than why does Hikma need more API?
It's pretty obvious to me that the shortage of API would be a clear sign they want to infringe.
Even AMRN lawyers could put the ceo on stand and just ask why do you need more API?....I think his recent statement about api shortage was huge.

[circuitcity]

Agree with LB, hikma will be testing water with a limited supply until couple months later when teva filed end banc and some FC action on the case afterwards.

By the way, the fact that teva not ordering anything from the Chinese supplier is very interesting. They have a deal with amrn already? But not in effect yet?

How limited of the supply? Hard to measure, playing evil, even if they way passed 10% of amrn rev, they can argue they are growing marine market, not infringe reduceit usage, it will be hard to prove one way or another. Just like last week, they only did 4K script, amrn lost 10k, gL no change, what happened? My guess 1) some of V got switched, 2) some patients is waiting for gV as pharmacydude said, and 3) some patients got scared away by higher copay because of tier change. Side note, we cannot expect every patient to be fully aware of the situation, and fully educated of quality, etc; just educating patients (a easier task imo) about reduceit result seems like a mission impossible already. So the damage Hikma did was more than what they sold, like a treble damage (guess that is why you can sue for treble damage).