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Replies to post #40209 on GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)
11/14/20 10:06 AM
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 188620 and is trading up about 23% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into November reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 184800 while it is still trading above last month's close of 187990 implying near-term strength.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during September. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
The NY Gold Nearest Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2020. Clearly, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date.
This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Quarterly to Yearly indicating models while the Weekly and monthly levels remain positive but showing signs of overhead resistance.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Nearest Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 188890 and support forming below at 185890. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 9th at 196610, which was up 30 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 20th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 196610 to 184800. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of November 9th reaching 196610 failed to exceed the previous high of 198380 made back during the week of September 14th. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 185920. Additional support is to be found at 188500. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall.
Interestingly, the NY Copper Nearest Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in March.
Critical support still underlies this market at 167590 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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