Replies to post #307872 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[couldbebetter]

Crikker, Keep in mind that if a friendly deal were negotiated with a BP,
should the agreed to price be too far below the actual price, information
could be "leaked" to Bloomberg or the WSJ for the main purpose of boosting
the share price so when the actual bid is announced it won't look obvious
that the acquirer paid too high a price for the company.

Of course, if some BP launched a hostile takeover bid, the premium
could be much lower, but management would likely attempt to find a
friendly acquirer (white knight) or negotiate a better deal.

I don't find the low price of AMRN stock as an impediment to a deal.
However, good management would find ways to keep their share price
from becoming undervalued. (For example, what Elon Musk did with
TSLA.) Of course, JT is no Elon Musk!

[Lrich]

I hate to agree with Meowza, but I'd argue he is closer to correct, $15 is reasonable, even if it is a high multiple.

Deals like Amarin would go for 3x market value or more, because of the fundamental potential and low market cap compared to potential peak. The problem is, JT is absolutely trash, and the market is saying as much.

In other words, as I've said before, and the market agrees with me: under JT's guidance, Amarin will struggle to achieve $1 billion in sales. But, the market disagreed with me last year, and believed that Amarin would be achieving billions in sales (until it realized JT is the wrong person). EU sales could easily be $2 billion or much, much greater in the right hands (aka, not JT the idiot)

So what that means is, a $15 buyout, when we look at market cap, is $6 billion or so. This price is easily justifiable, if you believe that in the right hands, Amarin will achieve peak sales of $1-2 billion or more. Once you account for cash on hand, loss carryforward, and other assets, its even easier to justify $15/share. The problem is (to beat a dead horse to absolute pulp) the management team. The market obviously has zero confidence in them succeeding in Europe. If there was any confidence in the EU market, then the SP would be much higher, arguably $15/share or greater. I argue that price because in 2018/2019, even when the label was in question due to MO FUD and then the adcom, the price was $15 or greater for most of the time.

In a similar vein, looking at forward guidance, if we get CHMP recommendation for approval next week, and JT doesn't come out like he did last year to screw things up I think Amarin could easily achieve $10-15 per share on excitement before sliding back down. I kind of assume that JT will come out and say something stupid though, which will suppress the price.

[Meowza]

But you are recognizing them, right? That's why you're here?