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Replies to post #1953 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
10/17/20 10:52 AM
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 244050 and is trading up about 36% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. This price action here in October is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2018 moving into 2020. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 245450 and support forming below at 240150. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of September 21st at 218100, which was down 7 weeks from the high made back during the week of August 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of September 21st, which has been a move of .1437%.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of November 2019 for four months. Since that low made in March, the market has rallied for 6 months. Meanwhile, the past six months has witnessed a rally of 34% percent. A month-end closing below 235375 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 255400 to maintain a near-term upward rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 159440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
The NY Silver COMEX Futures opened within last year's trading range which was 197500 to 142650. Right now, the market is still trading above last year's high while we have an outside reversal this year with the last print at 244050. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 1995. Nonetheless, the market is still trading above the opening print for the year which was at 179050. As long as this market remains trading above 207775 yet above the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.
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