The important question should be what does BP see as peak revenues for
the EU (and for all of Europe.) Of course, BP will not make such
projections public and much will depend on how much supply is available
over a certain period of time, and how much they will be able to charge
for Vascepa. Would BP expect to receive $1,000 per patient per year?
That works out to $80 a month. Assuming they could make a profit at
that low of a price, how many patients would they have using it at that
price? (Ultimately, I think that number could be over 5 million if
not 10 million.) So $5 billion-$10 billion a year at "peak" revenues?
The need is there. Vascepa is a life saving medication. BP would have
a very good shot at making Vascepa into a Mega-blockbuster drug in
Europe. (AMRN by itself cannot.) One other important point in this
equation. If BP bought AMRN for $8 billion...say $20 a share. They
may need to invest an additional $4 billion in time to do additional
studies for new indications, secure additional supply, protect IP
in various countries they hope to secure. Total cost could be $12
billion...but if it resulted in peak revenues of $5-$10 billion
would it be worth it? (If the value to BP is 4X revenues they get
$20-$40 billion worth of stock value.) Hope BP is modeling this out.
(It could be an excellent opportunity for BP.)
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