Replies to post #301202 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[ilovetech]

HDG, I have enjoyed your posts/contributions. I will miss them. I wish you the best of luck. I would welcome a public or PM anytime to let me know or us how you're doing.

GLTU
ILT

[MontanaState83]

HDG - Echo ILTs response. Really gonna miss you! Thx for your final thoughts.

[MontanaState83]

HDG - I agree with your take on Reduce It patents. Based on what happened with Marine patents, they’ll be invalidated in a New York minute

[circuitcity]

Appreciate it very much and good luck to you, hdg! Gonna miss your dd and posts.

[Invest83838]

Thank You HDG for Verifying

that the politically corrupt judicial patent system

and an inept AMRN Management

screwed AMRN shareholders

I remember you, along with most all of us,

were predicting multiples higher share prices not that long ago

Now you indicate sell if it get above $4.50 per share

That fat lady apparently has sung in regards to AMRN

[Jimcal22]

HDG,
Thank you for all that you have shared with us on AMRN, your expertise and time were truly appreciated
Jimcal

[mrmainstreet]

Appreciate the analysis HDG, although I don't see the company ever selling for less than $10. At that point they would just GIA and take their chances IMO.

Good luck to you.

[Triple88]

HDGabor

Final Q: Any guesstimates for revenue per script in EU and peak sales for Vascepa?

Your contributions during the past many years have been enormous and we all will miss you

Best of luck to you

[Biobillionair]

G

Good luck to you if you still hold ... If I were you I would sell the next "jump" ... "anything above $"4.50" ... if it will be "available" ...

Best of luck, but

Are they the worst?

Bottom 1% anything more is just BS.

BB

[gozips]

HD, thanks for all the DD and cogent analysis over the years. Sad to see this outlook after having so much promise, but times change. Best of luck in all endeavors.

[invest2992]

Good luck and God speed. I hope all works out well for you in the future. We certainly will miss your helpful insights into all things Amarin. I wish I had drawn the same conclusions you did from the facts as you saw them, but, like others here, I didn't so I sit here hoping that upcoming events lead to enough price appreciation to allow me to escape relatively unscathed. I'll miss your Hunglish. Good evening and goodbye.

[jfmcrr]

"Final" notes ...

Glad I caught this.

Best wishes....

[jomama9231]

Thx for all ur contributions to the board. Invaluable. Wish you well.

[1bill]

register this as a sticky, i do remember when i changed your mind, that was your vulnerability ,

[studythosestocks]

I appreciate all your contributions. Don't be a stranger. I agree with much of your analysis. I'll try and post some of my thoughts this Saturday on my thoughts on the Canter Preso a little over a week ago. Basically JT laid out the gameplan and strategy (not that it cannot be fine tuned and tweaked along the way). Wish you the best and yes, AMRN is back to being a speculative play again unfortunately. I'm still holding strong and will probably add after we get our 15-20% hair cut after generics launch in late October/early November (they have until Nov 20th to keep their 6 month reprieve from the other generics and they aren't going to miss this opportunity). My goal is to add in the middle to upper 2's over the next 12-18 months (maybe lower if the markets crash) and add an additional 60-80% more shares to my portfolio and hope that we are in a large portion of the ROW by 2024. Just a crazy man's thoughts. Calling it a night but know you are just rising for your Friday morning. Have a great day and stay safe.
Best,
Study

[HDGabor]

Some clarification:

1.) Exclusivity

EU
- V will have regulatory exclusivity till (at least) "January" 2031 (max. till "January 2032 if new indication will be approved) independently from any patents.
- EU R-IT patents are valid (currently) till 2033 (or 2034). It is a possibility that generics will not challenge the patents for this 2 years ("January" 2031 - 2033) ... but will - no doubt - if new patents will be granted and the patented period (w/o regulatory exclusivity) will became 8 years ("January" 2031 - 2039).

Other country / region
Most (all?) have a regulatory exclusivity but are not the same. e.g. China have 6 years ... for MARINE but max 5 years (but more likely less) for R-IT.
I did not do a full DD (did not check the exact - current - status) but here is some info:
- Trends and Developments in China’s Life Sciences Industry
- China Drug Administration Proposes Pharmaceutical Data Protection Guidelines
- Improvements in China Drug Registration – Opening the Door to the China Market for Global BioPharma
- China plans to increase market exclusivity term for pharmaceuticals based on improved pharmaceutical trial data protection
- China’s Biopharmaceutical Strategy: Challenge or Complement to U.S. Industry Competitiveness?

2.) Patents

First of all:
(i) Opinion / view by the FDA is totally irrelevant ... they are not "dealing" with patents, administer in the OB only. They are evaluate the science (and do not the legal) side. The strongest, patented method of use could be rejected because no scientific / health benefit and the weakest, most obvious MoU could be approved if it has a health benefit.
(ii) Scientific proof and legal possibility are different standards ... legal does not require a proof, doubt could exist.

MARINE

US: Gone ... It is on respirator (en banc review ... SC ...) but it is brain-dead the respirator will be switched off before EOY

ex-US: Of course other jurisdictions could rule differently ... but more likely will not ... at best: a coin flip

R-IT

At least JELIS is a nail in the coffin ... (rational behind JELIS list a lot of other prior art also). If a layman could see JELIS as "indicative" no question the POSA could also ... Please note: JELIS baseline TG 109 - 220 mg/dL (mean/SD: 153 mg/dL) vs REDUCE-IT 81 - 1401 mg/dL (median: <150 11%, 150/<200 28%, <200 61%) ... it is not close enough ... it cover / overlap

3.) Future

I do not see a scenario in which the Co exist after 2035 ... unless they make a portfolio ... but it requires money, aka dilution. I see 2 possibility:
(I) GIA: Optimize / run the business till end of the product, collect as much as possible ... but it is not too sexy, is not a double digit pps
(II) BO / out-license: Sell the Co ... if anybody interested or out-license the entire World and collect the royalty till it is exist.

4.) Valuation

a.) Cash on hand is not relevant ... as it is vary month by month and has a 1x multiple, added to the calculated value (c.)

b.) Loss carry forward: it is applicable as
b.1: Amount x Tax % (e.g. 1bn LCF with 25% tax rate worth 250 million)
b.2.: Depends on the buyer nationality the local ruled should be applied e.g. some countries it could not be used in the first year because of limitation ... till 50% of the profit or max. 100M / year
b.3: has a =< 1x multiple, added to the calculated value (c.)

c.) If ... and it is a big if ... anybody interested in a BO, it will not use a peak sales multiple (or any other "top-down" / multiple valuation). Multiplicator is not applicable in case of a fix lifecycle ... the length could be debated but no question it has an end.
The valuation will be prepared as:
- bottom-up (full / detaild P&L and Cash-Flow)
- for the period of regulatory exclusivity (due to the coin-flip MARINE patents and existing / high doubt regarding R-IT patents. (To avoid any doubt: it will value the "patent only" period also but it will have a huge discount, it will serve as a "negotiation tool")
- based on free cash-flow
- country by country basis
- year by year (more likley the frist 1-2 years ona month by month basis)
- will be discounted to NPV (net present value; e.g.: with 10% discount rate the a 1bn in the 5th year worth 590M and the a 1bn in the 10th year worth 349M ... 1bn over 10 years / 1bn in every year - total 10 bn - worth 5,86 bn now ... but with run up - e.g. 0,1 / 0,5 / 0,75 / 1 / 1 ... it is total 8,35 bn - worth 4,46 bn now ...

Please note: I idd NOT give a valuation / PT ever ... If I wrote any number I noted in every cases "it just for example", not enough data / info available to make a real calculation. (Most of my numbers - as the best approach, due to the differences between countries (GDP, population, etc) - was based on "50"% of potential US revenue ... as the "typical" revenue ration for other drugs / Co.)

-----

If everybody come your way, it is time to stop for a second and check that you are on the right side of the highway or not ... going on - claiming that everybody is stupid - could be deadly ...

Best,
G

ps.: Baker B' holding:
- sold 23,771,368 in Q2
- most likely sold (at least) 2,385,078 in Q3 ... but could be 5,160,378 ... or more

[MA52TA]

QUOTE HDG:


I commented / replied to all relevant posts during the last 2 weeks ... but I will not follow the board anymore since most of the posts are over my paygrade ...

US:
- It gone ... not tomorrow but within a foreseeable future (2022 ... but definitely by 2023/24)
- best case: they could find a solution (authorized generic, cooperation with a generic, etc) that will cover the cost of base / general operation
(see more below)

EU:
- It is not a question of what but when ... it will be approved (most / majority of drugs have to go through all - 3 - phases of the approval process ... opinion after 180 days is not a standard). It is on track, nothing wrong with the process.
- GIA vs partnership vs BO: the best is the highest value ... it could be GIA (if partnership / BO scenario provide less value than the GIA). I am 101+ sure it will be (was?) decided based on numbers and not by emotion
- Meanwhile EU is more complex (as approval / launch) than US ... it is simpler than US (after launch / reimbursement agreements)
- V could be launched without reimbursement agreement (eg. in Germany) and secure the reimbursement after the launch
- The governments will not allocate a given fund for V but a given reimbursement % ... revenue will not be limited by the governments

China: Earliest launch end of 2021 ... but more likely 2022

Middle East / North Africa: "interesting" ... three approvals, two launch after 4 years ... more likely will not be a relevant item

Row (S/M America, Russia, etc.): More likely looking for a best partnership / BO offer ... will be decided after (with?) EU launch

Management / BoD / Co: Are they the best? No. Are they the worst? No.
Most critics are hindsight or based on lack of experience ... (It is amazing what type of info are requested by shareholders, what some thinks should be shared / released by the Co.).

All together ... but first of all:
The Co value is equal with regulatory exclusivity (e.g. 10 yrs in the EU till 2031) nothing more (except some "special" cases ... e.g. EU could worth an additional 3-4 yrs IF the patents will NOT be extended till 2039. I think generics will not challenge R-IT patents for 2-3 yrs but will for 9 yrs.)
R-IT patents will be invalidated based on JELIS "before" the case will be filed ... A lot of us seen R-IT result obvious based on our DD / JELIS.

More likely the Co will be GIA forever unless somebody will make an offer but it is a coin flip.
If an offer will be made I expect something like $3B ... something below $4B ...

It could be a speculative play @ $2.50/3.00 but could not be a strategic investment.

Good luck to you if you still hold ... If I were you I would sell the next "jump" ... "anything above $"4.50" ... if it will be "available" ...

Best,
G
You want to change something in your post.
Even just the last part, about the $ 4.50?

[alwayswatching1]

I can’t believe you of all people were this wrong.