I think many people are misunderstanding Todd's point. He is saying that the underlying risk is not a legal matter, nor a equity matter, it is a time matter. He simply believes that (given what is currently known), that when the cases are won, it will take another 2-3 years for them to be remanded back to the lower courts in order to have some monetary compensation to be awarded. I agree with Todd on the legal front. IF IT WAS ONLY up to the court system, it could be a long road.
Where I disagree with him is that I believe Mnuchin will not want the GSE's to languish that long. Mnuchin and Calabria will want to do something to expedite their recap and release. The primary thing preventing them from doing something thus far is the election.
Both Mnuchin and Calabria have stated that they want to get the GSE's out of conservatorship. Both have stated that they want to do it sooner rather than later. Both will not want a long, protracted legal battle to hinder that. Thus, after the election, they will want to clear the court cases (i.e. settle) quickly.
This may be why they left the NWS in place with the 4th amendment (after they hit 45B). It gives them some leverage in negotiating a settlement.
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