Replies to post #300633 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[raistthemage]

Is Vascepa worth it yes... is Thero worth it... no.

[mrmainstreet]

I'm a buyer at $3 all day. I don't like it but I will take advantage of it. The company has an approved drug and is break even. Worth more than $3-4 a share IMO.

Shit just cash and the carry over loss is worth $3 a share.

[zmanindc]

At $12, you are looking at less than 5 billion for a company that has 600 million plus in cash, still some value in the US market, at least 300 million to come in from Canada royalties over the life of that contract and awaiting to be approved into population of almost 2 billion people. ROW alone is worth at least $20.

We are going to trade lower until 9/30 because funds are rebalancing, selling losers. After 9/30 other funds will add but we trade at a discount because management has not provided the investment community with a clear strategy and timeline.

[Will Lar]

Marcap ($1.5B) = Cash ($0.6B) + Rev est 2020 ($0.9B ?)

WS's valuation of Amarin. WS is forward looking, which means they see Amarin will have about $1B revenue worldwide combined at this moment. Don't know if EU is factored in, but likely a small part is. Without US patent, WS thinks Amarin can't defend its market in US and skeptical on global. The only way Amarin can prove WS wrong is by sales, quarter by quarter, and the coming 2-3 quarters are extremely important especially if generics launch in between.

I don't know about the acquisition valuation, but it's a buyer's market for Amarin for sure. I don't buy the notion that acquisition price has nothing to do with the sp. The reason people got such an impression is that when such an event happened (i.e., BO price is way higher than the sp), it's because there is a strong underlining value of the company that WS hasn't priced in but buyer is willing to price in, i.e., pending clinical trial or a strong pipeline in pharma/biotech, key technology or product about to launch or just launched which could generate gun-buster sales. In the case of Amarin, can someone points out any secret values that people are yet to recognize? The pending EMA approval is known and probably anticipated by everyone. The sales of Vascepa? a big question mark right now.