I think it's a much more complicated game than that. Think about it from McConnell's point of view. He already has a majority on the Supreme Court. He can suggest a "bi-partisan" field of possible jurists to take her place. Then make sure the one chosen is reasonably conservative and talk about the big compromise every day there after. He also ensures the Dems, should they win both the Senate and the Executive, will be very unlikely to completely eliminate the filibuster and/or pack the Supreme Court.
If he rams through another Federalist Society replacement he can be sure of retribution should the Democrats control both houses and the executive branch after the lame duck period. I think he's smarter than that. I also think he's one of the few people who can manage the president. We'll see.
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