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Crikker

09/10/20 5:16 PM

#298122 RE: Jasbg #298110

Isn’t it more like $10 million+ per week in sales? 52 weeks x $10 million = $520 million

Will Lar

09/10/20 6:10 PM

#298144 RE: Jasbg #298110

Jasbg - you're looking at the cash-in side. you also need to look at the cash out side.

For the cash in, Amarin is facing a strong possibility of declining revenue in US in two years or so, and no guarantee of ramping up sales or revenue in EU at the same pace as it's losing in the US. So less $$ in.

For the cash out, Amarin is still spending on its expensive workforce in the US. If it enters the EU market, it has to build an entire workforce (or a company) from ground-up. Ideally it also needs to invest in more trials for additional indications, etc. So more $$ out.

In this case, Amarin with $600M is like a person living in Manhatten who only makes $3000 a month, has $20K in the bank, and doesn't have any impressive degree, experience or background, but tells everyone that he is going to succeed in the city. Everyone just looks at him and thinks HOW? Technically speaking Amarin EU & ROW in a perfect world could be $15/share or so. But the street only gives it $4. Why? because WS doesn't believe it can succeed in EU & ROW in its current state.

Lastly, the stock market nowadays emphasizes greatly on prospects and market dominance potential. Hence you see the lofty valuation/sp for companies that make meager revenues but are viewed as market leaders, i.e., Tesla, Zoom, ... The big cash-cow companies like GM or Cisco don't really get looked upon favorably. Amarin has no prospect - no pipeline, no dominance possibility in US, the largest drug market, not enough cash to dominate in EU. If it can't convince WS, then it will have difficult raising capital in the public market to support its GIA in EU if it needs. Btw, it also has a track record of not returning much to shareholders in the last ten years.

Bottom-line - making sales now doesn't mean much for the future. It's the growth and innovation/prospect that people are looking for and investing in.

These are applicable to for-profit corporations, not to LLCs or LLPs.


Bill B

09/10/20 6:16 PM

#298149 RE: Jasbg #298110

If JT does in fact decide to go it alone in Europe the share price will halve again and remain there for a long time.