Replies to post #296861 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rosemountbomber]

So mildly positive news if this analyst is correct in his thinking about supply being constrained. Only mildly because still the longer term projection is declining sales going forward. But since I am not a highfalutin thinker I always try to simplify to a real world example to be able to better understand, so wonder if you or anyone else could help me with this example.

So does this supply constraint mean that one of these days I go into the pharmacy for my V script and the pharmacist says "sorry we are out of the generic V." What happens next? Does he offer me the branded V? Now if my insurance covers the generic V am I correct in saying that the branded V will have very little coverage (expensive in other words)? Does this mean many people when confronted with the case where their generic V is out of stock, will simply not take the branded V instead? Too many questions I know but just trying to figure out if this supply constraint only limits the Generic companies sales and not necessarily boost Amarin's sales.

[couldbebetter]

Kiwi, This is another reason why AMRN should be owned by BP. Once
BP acquires AMRN they will have to supply enough Vascepa to meet the
demand in Europe. AMRN has already done this to some extent, at least
for the US and of course Canada. What a BP acquirer could do is tie-up
vast amounts of raw material at the most beneficial pricing because they
are buying in bulk. Could a generic do the same? Would enough product
even be available? Keep in mind if sales go well Europe, BP could go
further out into time to lock up what they believe will be required,
making it more difficult for generics to maintain an adequate supply.

What we do not know is when Mochida will have its one a day version
available for AMRN (and presumably) its BP acquirer to bring to market.
Mochida has a market cap around $1.1 billion. The right BP may be able
to use economies of scale to crush generics in the US, especially if in
Europe the pricing of Vascepa there is done to insure the price is
affordable enough to capture a much higher percentage of the CVD market
not only there but China and perhaps Canada as well. Is there a sweet
spot with regard to pricing that will assure that Vascepa dominates
the prescription market for Omega-3's? (and in time maybe OTC with
original Vascepa but not the Mochida version.) BP could win BIGTIME!

[MontanaState83]

Kiwi - you still in RLFTF?

[Dancing in the dark]

Re: generic icosapent ethyl
I believe we have at least one pharmacist on the board,

Do branded drugs that go generic usually change the packaging size to much larger lots, to be broken down by the pharmacists at the point of sale?

For example, branded vascepa is packaged as 120 1g capsules. Will the generics package icosapent ethyl in lots of 1000 or more capsules?

if so, the dosage at
1g sized capsules, Rx filled 120 (or 360 for 3 month supply) at a time, presents a unusual logistical problem (volume and weight) for generic distribution and point of sale.