Replies to post #296362 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[dukesking]

Kiwi, that’s obviously a strategy that Hikma might determine is their best option and pursue it. It doesn’t make financial sense to me, in an unripe market with no ability to advertise cardiovascular risk reduction or grow through marketing, and competition from other generics 6 months down the road. It also doesn’t make sense for AMRN to continuing advertising and promotion after that happens. I agree that if and when Hikma launches that AMRN should cease all promotion and launch a generic version of their own and preserve capital and focus on EU launch. I‘m hoping that Hikma and others agree there is a win win strategy they could pursue with AMRN that is mutually beneficial that doesn’t require vacating the courts ruling. Hope that helps clear up what I was referring to.

[alm2]

Kiwi
I agree that when generics launch Amarin either should or would have to stop the costs of funding a build of USA market
The question is whether they stop it right now or not ... saving costs inevitably important ... but so are sales
If sales could be maintained - prior to generic launch at current levels or even increase without advertising / big sales force this may yield good profit to the company - cash in the bank
The assessment of whether they would get a return via increasing sales from further promotion - and for how long ? Is a difficult question to assess
Careful business trading management is absolutely necessary in this balancing time
I am not sure the TEVA early launch / 6 mths exclusivity as a generic is worth that much in an underdeveloped market - only for other generics to come in and split the market even further
Hamoa has made the very valid point that generics usually capitalise on generic drug price undercutting in a well developed market
Why launch if you lose money ?
They will need to be very sure of their profit line here ...

The longer launch is delayed the stronger Amarin should aim to get financially

Another thought ... a developed european /row market would entail diverting supply away from USA ? A higher price could be paid by the selling company ?

Some time ago there was much debate about whether there was enough world wide to create sufficient supply - I recollect 5 billion in sales was the sort of level as being discussed as to total world supply potential

Europe /row should be able to pay a higher price for the drug from supplier to selling company than generics would want to pay for a cheap generic USA supply
Alm

[circuitcity]

Guess we have to model the two scenarios:

- continue sales and dtc for 6 mos, how much net rev will get? You made the point they are about to break even

- cut down sales team and dtc as much as possible (they may in a contract for dtc and has to consider severance for lay-off), same time script may drop? How much if any? How much net rev can bring in?

Compare and go from there. My gut feeling is telling me #2 is better. Oh, also not sure about their commitment with current suppliers, if they commit to a large qty from last year, then they have to continue the marketing, they are stuck in a way.

By the way, I agree H will launch on time per HDG. Another reason is that they want to get on formulary update. So the half year in advance could be a year.

[sts66]

Hikma wasn't the first to file a para IV cert ANDA, Teva was (4/22/2014) - so Teva has the initial 180 days of exclusivity, not Hikma, and Teva's GV ANDA hasn't been approved by the FDA yet - even the generic issue is FUBAR, typical for anything involving AMRN.