Replies to post #302960 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[skitahoe]

Hank, your right that's possible, but I believe at roughly the same time the Top 100 figures were discussed it was also stated that 80+ patients were living in the trial, so clearly some of the Top 100 have passed on.

I believe of the 80+ who were alive roughly 2 years ago, many are in complete remission and while I don't expect all to be alive 2 years later, I think it's very possible that over 70 are. If it were only 60, that's still four times what could have been expected with the SOC.

Gary

[meirluc]

No Hankmanhup. It is not possible that all 100 are alive at 58.4 months.
An mOS of 58.4 months for the 100 patients means that the median is 58.4 months with half the patients (50) predicted to survive 58.4 months or more and the other half (also 50) predicted never to reach 58.4 months alive,

Furthermore, the 2018 SNO update estimated that 28.2% of the 331 patients (about 93 patients) will survive 36 months or beyond and this infers that about 238 of the 331 patients will never survive to the 36 months timeline.

Apparently the statisticians of the 2018 SNO inferred that of the approximately 93 post 36 months survivors, 43 would event before they reach the 58.4 months timeline and that only 50 would become post 58.4 months survivors.

For reasons stated in a message I posted today, I am estimating that we will perhaps end up with 55-60 patients who will survive 60(+) months. It is a somewhat more optimistic estimate than that provided by the 2018 SNO update.

We are now about 75 months past the midpoint enrollment of the trial (May 2014). I am estimating that if we had let's say 58 patients who survived 60(+) months, we could have lost within the last 15 months maybe up to 8 of those 58 patients. I therefore believe that it is not unreasonable to estimate that perhaps 50 patients are alive today.