Replies to post #291262 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Jasbg]

anfla@ Se your points - and you might be right.

But what happens in 2029 - when we know Teva is in the market of generics.

I dont necessarily se artificial EPA as a competitor. More like a supplement (pipeline product) as you say in a number of years - when Vascepa is nearing the patent runout date 'for sure' in US.

Jasbg

[Will Lar]

If I were Afimmune, I would only run a minimal size trial in US to show the MACE rate, which may only cost 1/2 of that of RIT.

I am behind the posts on the Epeleuton topic. Never heard it before. But I took a quick look at the molecule and company. It's a derivative of EPA, but the 15-hydroxy addition does change the tail end 2D & 3D structure of Vascepa or the original EPA. If it has similar activities as EPA in lab and trials so far, then it means at the molecular level that Epeleuton is acting on the same protein target as EPA. In short, EPeleuton has a great deal of scientific value - help researchers track down the protein target which is the holy grail in this case, just like HMGCoA reductase for statins.

That said, I am not sure it has much better commercial value than Vascepa because I imagine Epeleuton likely has a higher manufacturing cost than EPA due to the extra steps for making the 15-hydroxy group. Unless it can deliver much better results in a comparable outcome trial, it doesn't make sense to make it into a commercial product. That's probably why Amarin is not worried. Bhatt can do his research and trials as he is a scientist who lives on research and publications, not revenue and profit.

September 2 is still the fateful date for Amarin.

[sts66]

No guarantee it would have the same, better, or worse results than R-IT, but some BP or VC may be interested in helping to fund another R-IT, company would likely have to go public first unless BP buys it so they can access equity markets, like CVAC just did. The reason that could pay off is that patent protection could give the drug 17 yrs of exclusivity vs. the 9-10 that V still had left after R-IT approval - that's almost double the amount of potential sales - and if it's cheaper to make than V it would definitely steal market share in the EU. Probably wouldn't in the US once V goes generic unless the CVOT results were even better than R-IT.