Replies to post #98265 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[Borel Fields]

Again, I think the "unknown unknowns" dominate here. The rest here becomes musings.

However, I like your approach: in a normal distribution 2/3 of observations are within 1 SD of the mean. The distribution of changes (delta-TSS) runs pretty much from -8 to +8. My w.a.g. might be 2/3 between -4 and +4, so I'd guess 4 as an SD. Maybe that's high.

Then, in normal theory, it's just a t-test. Standard error = sqrt((s1^2/n1)+(s2^2/n2)) = sqrt((4^2/56)+(4^2/28)) = .93.

Lastly, the width of the confidence interval would be either 1.64 or 1.96 times that SE (one-sided or 2 sided at 5%), requiring an observed difference of about 1.5 to 1.8 units in average delta-TSS for significance.

Fun for a Saturday morning, but, again, it ignores the "unknown unknowns."