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Replies to post #1892 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
07/18/20 11:34 AM
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 197640 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. This market has still closed abovefour key support levels. This market has elected Bullish Reversals on all five time levels suggesting it is still in a bullish posture.
The NY Silver COMEX Futures opened within last year's trading range which was 197500 to 142650. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 197640. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 1995. Nonetheless, the market is still trading above the opening print for the year which was at 179050. As long as this market remains trading above 157550 yet above the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.
Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.
PIVOT POINTS
Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 194650 and resistance at 198670 and 199733 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 195000 and 196113. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 198403 199350. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.
OVERVIEW ANALYSIS
The NY Silver COMEX Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and it closed higher. We did close below the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator at 195925 settling at 195730 which alerted us to a further decline was likely going into the immediate session. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 188400. Now since we closed back above this indicator in the current trading session, then holding above this indicator for the next session will imply the decline is subsiding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 176875 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.
This last rally managed to exceed the previous high intraday.
Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 194133
Weekly ....... 178600
Monthly ...... 134317
Quarterly .... 143733
Yearly ....... 139767
Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.
At present, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 138940 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.
Presently, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 2974 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. Presently, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 13399 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.
RECREATING TIME
Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.
Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 17th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.
We closed the previous month at 184990 after making a new high up two months from the low established back in May during 2020 at 176150. as was the case last month. The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 138540 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 121340.
BROADER OVERVIEW
While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.
DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
The major high that took place was established on 07/16/2020 at 198700. Following the major high, this market has made a new reaction low at 193550 which did not penetrate the previous reaction low of 179950 made back on 07/02/2020. Consequently, until this market begins to make lower lows, then, technically speaking, the trend has not been reversed on this time level.
Nonetheless, this new reaction low has held above the Uptrend Line connecting the two previous lows made before the high at 170150 and 179950 which rested at 188996Currently, this pre-high Uptrend Line rests at 188996 which we are trading above as of the close today.
Now, turning to our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still positive but declining right now.
OVERALL TREND
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's high and low leaving that as an 2 year high and an outside reversal to the upside. Looking at the weekly level, this market is currently in a bullish position. Focusing on the daily level, this market is in an immediate bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.
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