Replies to post #257572 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Amatuer17]

Very good post - I have same sentiments - I hope You and I are wrong - else I will be losing a lot of money

[tootalljones]

interesting post attilathehunt.

[powerwalker]

ATH, since the quarter ended on June 30, he might have wanted to have the cash on hand for the June 10-Q, which makes sense given the over-concern by his critics that Anavex won't have enough cash at any given point.

The new financing deal provides some price stability to future sales and should give some comfort to those worried about shares sold under $3.

Finally, as to why on July 2 release the information of the new financing deal, TGD figured it would involve time, effort and research for investors to conclude the deal's value to Anavex ... and he wanted to make sure this MB did not go silent over the 3-day holiday.

A great 4th to one and all.


ANAVEX NOW ... RIGHT NOW ...
MONO-STYLE ... for LIFE ...
and for ALL AGES!!!

[Steady_T]

Arguments can be made in either direction about the revised financing deal.

The simple argument could be that Missling doesn't care much about the very short term impact of when a PR is released. The revision happened when it happened and he chose to PR it when it happened.

Missling understands as do most shareholders that the results of trials will determine the share price and everything is is just background noise with little ultimate impact.

[poguemahone]

Your speculation about DM’s motives is very plausible. It will be interesting to see how the financing news is received Monday morning. This could very well explain why we’ve paused in the $4.80-$5.20 range.

I will be marking my 5th year as a shareholder of this stock next week, so it sure would be nice to have some strong trial results to celebrate this occasion.

Cheers & Happy 4th of July!

[Biostockclub]

“Can you any or anyone, put a spin on why my 3 questions are off base AND make an argument why it was best to do things the way he did?”

Your 3 questions are not off base - questions are always within bounds when looking for the “truth”.

As to making an argument supporting why it was best to do things the way he did, consider this:

Let’s think about hedge funds for a moment. Park West dumping their entire holding of 5% after such a long time (bought in at cheaper prices)...”when we were THIS close... “

And the reason supplied* was the pandemic - they just didn’t know how covid would affect the trials.

* We shouldn’t be in the business of supplying reasons for entities who do this for their living. (Opinion)

What if Park West’s motives weren’t so innocent? They are in business and if they thought they had the chance to take profits at the $5-6 run up and let it drop back into the $3’s knowing they could buy back in. Then, they buy back their position before GOOD results - would that be a good reason? Meaning - a good reason to set the floor at $4.92?

So, if Blackrock (currently holding and held through the pandemic...all it would have taken was a phone call - Missling announced the virus had no impact on our trials...was not a secret) or any other hedge funds which get in now/early before run ups, they can take profits but will never get the volume they had at low price again because they will make too big of a splash to keep the price down and new shares can only be put at a level which has been specified.

I’m not insinuating that Park West (or any other fund) acted unethically - it’s business not personal - it needn’t have been sinister at all. Missling just doesn’t want it to happen again. He closed a loophole, imo.

And that’s just one opinion of an argument which could be made which includes good results and setting the floor before reporting them.

I’m not stating the results will be stellar - only answering your call to debate that the fog of strategy is not crystal clear that PDD results are mediocre.

As to the timing: this gives might have been necessary to “rush” this floor protection into place given your point about the July 5 puts action. Perhaps, it was deduced that this same strategy was used last time for additional capital gain and Dr Missling wanted to put his finger in the dam early this time?

Those were your 3 points: one - timing of dilution last time (which never preceded bad news of any kind which I remember - in fact, you point to last year’s July 3 weekend shelf announcement in a “and see what happened??” tone. So, what happened? Nothing! You built a foundation on negative optics and dilution and we started several trials and hired new staff which precede approval by implication and regulation.

Ok, your next point: why not put a dilution/finding deal in place after great news is announced? Because hedge funds can run the price up buying big blocks (have you seen Xena’s big block charts? Did you see some of the very sizable blocks go through especially at close recently? If they are rebuilding their position...they can sell and buy puts.)

I think you get what I’m saying.

Maybe Park West wasn’t so innocent after all?

So, they buy huge blocks at end of day and dump a 5% position and Dr. Missling puts out a funding revision after close on long weekend after the giant purchases were made and the puts were bought which would trap anyone if good/great results are announced before July options. Hm - you say Missling is conniving? I think I agree:)

Have a great Fourth, AVXL Board!
Bio

[Turner2017]

I agree with all 3 points. Especially #1.....

[sokol]

I am a novice at this, but I attempt to learn the best I can. How unusual was the put option activity for July $5 puts on the day before the financing amendment was announced? In looking at the volume for AVXL July $5.00 put option contracts for that day, I see where the volume reported via Yahoo finance was 200 and the open interest 2.3k. Assuming those numbers are correct, it does not seem like the July $5.00 put option activity was unusual or that it is indicative of where the AVXL stock price should go? But, you may have some better information or insight than I do.

In researching stock options, I do see where various stock option spread strategies exist where one sells one higher strike price put option contract and then buys another lower strike priced put option contract.

The maximum profit for a bull put spread is equal to the difference between the amount received from the sold put and the amount paid for the purchased put. In other words, the net credit received initially is the maximum profit, which only happens if the stock's price closes above the higher strike price at expiry.

The goal of the bull put spread strategy is realized when the price of the underlying moves or stays above the higher strike price. The result is the sold option expires worthless. The reason it expires worthless is that no one would want to exercise it should the stock price move higher.

Using the July 17 $5 and $7.5 put options as an example, if one were bullish on Anavex, you could buy a $5 put contract for $.50 and sell a $7.5 put contract at a price of $2.60 and pocket $2.10 x 100 = $210 per contract as a credit. If the stock price moved above $7.50, the $7.5 put contract would expire worthless, and you keep the $210 without having to purchase Anavex stock at a price of $7.50. If you were wrong about being that bullish, you would of course have to purchase Anavex stock at $7.50, but you still keep the $2.10 per share so your net in that stock would be $7.50 - $2.10 = $5.40. So, wouldn't you have to analyze the stock option spreads to get a clear picture of whether to be bullish or bearish on a stock? Just asking.

[Investor2014]

The missing scenario is that Missling simply did not, and may not yet, know the outcome of the trial when last tapping LPC.

Raising cash as usual would be the right and prudent thing to do, not waiting until material information is in hand and use that to act before its public disclosure.

[imho]

1)..If PDD results were going to be very good or better, then TGD

I think your whole premise is off, because Anavex at this time does not know the trial results.

2)...Most here believe that if they was a PR, after the bell, leading into a long 3 day holiday, the optics were not going to be favorable, so let me ask this question...If this was good news, then why do it after the close leading into a 3 day holiday? If this news is great...

Again your assumption maybe off. However, one possibility is that the CRO may have contacted Anavex that the result maybe forthcoming, and Anavex and LPC rushed out a deal in anticipation. It just so happened to be pre holiday. So, Anavex may get to see results for the first time, perhaps as early as Monday. Press releases to follow??? IDK, just guessing.

IMHO