MNBioMike - After years of unpredictable AMRN price moves I'm reluctant to predict, but the conventional wisdom would be with two catalysts near end of year there could be a run up starting perhaps around October. It would be possible to play that and get out pre-catalyst. I think chance of winning on appeal seems like a bit over 60%, so a case can be made for holding through. If appeal is lost, the stock can be expected to dip sharply from where ever it is then (perhaps from $8 back to $6 or who knows). Even with lost appeal, ex-US is worth substantially more than current price in the long run, although it would likely take a year or two to ramp up sales and bio investors don't like waiting with dead money.
I'm not a huge fan of hedging. Feels like betting both sides. Maybe someone who is good at it can explain it. I pick a time frame and stick with it. I think AMRN will be worth more than today in 18 months based on European sales alone, almost certain. 62% it pops up with an appeal win, and a smaller pop on EU approval (less of a surprise).
Only thing that's sure is the right move will seem clear after it's too late to do anything about it.
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