Can't fathom your analysis, but I'm thinking 2/3 of the trial participants get better (leronlimab arm) and 1/3 don't (placebo arm) - for the laymen here.
This is excellent stuff, thanks! I think that the mortality in the placebo group will land somewhere betweeen the 40% you suggested and the 65% of Boreal Fields. It will probably be closer to your estimate. Lower percentages in the placebo would reduce Leronimab’s margin of safety, but I hope we will be ok regardless.