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Replies to post #1874 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
06/06/20 9:03 AM
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 174790 is immediately trading down about 2.46% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. We did elect one Daily Bullish Reversal. Considering all timing factors, there was a possibility of a decline moving into today was Fri. 5th with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 9th. There are 2 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Wed. 10th to Thu. 11th warning of a potential choppy swing period for these few Days. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction. Currently, the market is trading below both the previous weekly and monthly highs which were 189500 and 185500 respectfully but it is trading beneath both implying this has encountered initial resistance.
Timing Models are always critical and there was a chance of a decline moving into the week of June 1st with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of June 15th. We have Weekly Directional Change targets due the week of June 15th and the week of August 17th. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.
The technical daily support for the next session lies at 168667 intraday but the market remains above that level right now settling at 179210. Looking at the weekly level, technical support lies at 174500 intraday but the market remains above that level right now settling at 179210. On the monthly level, key broader underlying technical support at 133734.
TARGET Technical Support
168667 | 174500 | 133734
When we look at the trading range using the Daily Bearish and Bullish Reversals, we see support at 172240 and resistance at the Bullish Reversal above at 182000. The broader trading range using the Bullish and Bearish Reversals from all five levels taking the nearest in both directions, we see a trading range of 172240 to 182000.
Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the long-term level is still positive. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was also Bullish along with the Monthly and Yearly levels indicating and overall positive stance. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's settlement, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.
Moving averages and stochastics are nice confirming tools. They are incapable of forecasting a high or low. They also do not reflect magnitude of a move. They can be a useful confirming tool, but nothing to actually enter a trade on that is consistent.
PIVOT POINTS
Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 178833, 179360, and 180716 for this next trading session. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 176000, 176593, 182003, 182750. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.
OVERVIEW ANALYSIS
The NY Silver COMEX Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level plunging significantly again by 4.16%. A break of today's low of 173750 during the next trading session will warn of a potential serious decline ahead. This market has declined for 4 trading days since the last high established at 189500 from which we have witnessed a decline of 8.31%. .
Specifically notice, this correction has not penetrated the last cycle low established at 171900 ten days ago making this a retest of that previous low rather than a change in trend so far. This pattern notwithstanding, the market has been declining on our indicating ranges and has been declining from the last high over the past four days. Up to this moment in time, this market remains above the technical uptrend support which lies at 173935.
Up to this moment in time, this decline is following our projected technical support for such a move which today rested at 173967. This technical projected support will reside at 170084 for the next session.
Up to this moment in time, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bullish. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The market is trading within our envelope albeit skewed to the bearish side.
We have not broken below our intraday Crash Point number of 173967 suggesting this is not yet a panic sell-off type of move. We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 170375 settling at 180610. The current crash mode support for this session was 173967 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 174790 implying the market is still rather vulnerable yet sustaining for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 169813. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding.
Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -178583
Weekly ....... 166200
Monthly ...... 139783
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767
Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.
Currently, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 116300 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.
At present, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 11995 and a month end closing above this level will be a buy signal for now.
RECREATING TIME
Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.
Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 5th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.
We closed the previous month at 149730which has moved up from the previous month which wasbearish. The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 138540 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 121340.
END OF QUARTER
The market is trading quite strong above our first projected target which rests at 144690. The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 220233. The projected technical support resides at 103350. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 238392. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 141540 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 139640. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains moderately bullish for now yet the weekly level is also somewhat bullish. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is a bit further from the market right now. This resides at 138540 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this Reversal will signal a sharp decline to retest of support is likely. Still, we do see underlying support forming in the 155540
Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 141540 and 138540.
BROADER OVERVIEW
While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.
This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.
DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
Utilizing our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still positive but declining right now.
OVERALL TREND
The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the quarterly short-term level of our momentum model yet neutral on the trend indicatorThe NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's low leaving that as an 1 year high. while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Looking at the weekly short-term level, this market is still bullish on our momentum and trend indicatorswhile the broader term is neutral to bullish. The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the daily short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.
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