Replies to post #285488 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

The value of the suspension on the 60M is certainly not a quibble.

The early exercise ability on an option/warrant is virtually worthless in non dividend paying stocks. In Jerry's world warrants are valued via magic. If Black Scholes, the suspension has no value. If Monty Carlo, very near no value (basically it would be the possibility of interest capture).

Maybe you consider both those valuations BS, and I would not argue with you. In the real world the early exercise is more a value for tax and diversification. But neither of these effect NWBO side of the deal.

Let us look from another angle. Suppose the PPS is over .23 in Nov. In this case the suspension has no effect. Either way they sell 60M shares for $14M.

Suppose under .23? In this case, NWBO would be better off if the options were exercised so they get the cash.

In neither case does the suspension directly benefit NWBO.

So what the hell? I still do not believe LP would be so bold and/or stupid as to pull off such a clearly self dealing transaction if NWBO did not have a benefit other than the direct warrant valuation she could claim. And that is why I look at the share cap.

The warrants contractually count against the 1.2B, but that is only an agreement. It would be very reasonable for this to be set aside while the warrants are suspended. In which case, this is nothing about short squeezes and result timing. It will be about share counts.