JL - I appreciate and understand your thinking, even if we happen to disagree.
I think I am more open to the possibility that the stock takes a dive after a loss, similar to what happened in March, and I plan to act quickly to close out the hedge if so in order to “profit” from it. This obviously helps me to justify the hedge. You are correct that much of the premium will evaporate after the event if there is no time premium left - insurance isn’t free:).
The other thing here is that I prefer a hedge to help manage the mental capital. I wouldn’t be able to live with myself if I lost a chunk of my mothers retirement money, so it’s not negotiable for me. I also have my own position in AMRN but not nearly as many shares, and I still hedge to a lesser degree.
I would say if you think that there is no way in hell we are below $5 on Jan ‘22, then you could sell a bunch of 5 strike puts(Jan ‘22) expiry) and use the proceeds to buy a bunch of higher strike calls (maybe the 15’s) as a lotto play, Come Jan’22 you loose nothing if the price is above 5 and start making money above 15. You could do this with any combination of strike’s really.
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