JL - I agree that you typically want to be a seller of volatility, and there is premium built into the longer dated options due to the coming AC decision.
For me(and my mother;) ) it’s about being able to sleep easy knowing exactly what I’m risking. Today the stock is at ~7.50, and after the AC decision no one knows where it will go. Our opinions of the value of this company are just that - opinions. Who here thought the price would never reach $4 even with a loss? My hand is raised. We shouldn’t assume that Wall Street will ever value this company appropriately based on Europe, China, etc. alone. We believe it’s worth much more, even without US, but Wall Street currently does not, so don’t assume it will ever reach your valuation. It’s clearly not a given.
So, it doesn’t really matter what we think because we are all likely wrong - we should assume the worst for the initial reaction if AMRN loses and that would present a great opportunity for us to capitalize on a “mispricing” of the shares during the initial reaction. Even if you save yourself $1 or $2 per share on a big initial drop, that’s a big percentage of today’s share price and it matters if this investment is a big percentage of your retirement or net worth.
Sleep easy and hedge your bet. The really nice thing here is that cost of insurance is a drop in the bucket compared to the likely share price increase long term if we win.
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